From IGM: The IGM is administering this new survey on the outlook for the economy in collaboration with fivethirtyeight.com. The FiveThirtyEight/IGM COVID-19 Economic Outlook survey complements the existing IGM expert panels and is being overseen by Professors Allan Timmermann and Jonathan Wright. The list of experts answering the questions is identified in the post along […]

By Patrick A. McLaughlin and Casey Mulligan, Patrick of course being from GMU/Mercatus: Despite evidence to the contrary, three common myths persist about federal regulations. The first myth is that many regulations concern the environment, but in fact only a small minority of regulations are environmental. The second myth is that most regulations contain quantitative […]

I hear a lot about deaths rising with recessions. What does the data indicate about the robustness of such a relationship? Below is a plot of the deaths/population ratio, in logs. Figure 1: Log ratio of deaths to population. NBER defined recession dates shaded gray. Source: CDC, Census via FRED, NBER, and author’s calculations. Estimating […]

by Calculated Risk on 5/25/2020 10:13:00 PM

by Calculated Risk on 5/25/2020 10:02:00 PM

Last week Joe Biden made an off-the-cuff joke that could be interpreted as taking African-American votes for granted. It wasn’t a big deal — Biden, who loyally served Barack Obama, has long had a strong affinity with black voters, and he has made a point of issuing policy proposals aimed at narrowing racial health and […]

Released in 1971, as usual with San Francisco movies one can see the reach of NIMBY — the city doesn’t look much larger or busier today.  The subtext of the film is that law and order is collapsing, yet San Francisco was far cleaner back then and street harassment never is presented as a risk.  […]

By Lambert Strether of Corrente I was considering using “All that is fomites melts into air,” but I couldn’t bring myself to, so count yourself lucky (and anyhow, it’s not really true). From the beginning of the #COVID19 pandemic, we’ve been washing our hands, masking up, cleaning surfaces, and social distancing. These measures have worked […]

By Lambert Strether of Corrente. #COVID19 At reader request, I’ve added this daily chart: The data is the John Hopkins CSSE data. Here is the site. I have changed to a linear scale as a default for US States and territories (see below). At some point, the enormous discrepancy between the course of the pandemic […]

Be sure to check out our bonus Memorial Day weekend podcast, with Michael Lewis, author of Moneyball, The Big Short, and so many others. The second season of his podcast Against the Rules, just dropped, focusing on Coaches. He describes how telling narrative stories via podcasting allows him to exercise a different set of muscles. […]

In the last five years we’ve published 30 articles on NGOs and social change. What do they reveal?

In Why Human Challenge Trials Will Be Necessary to Get a Coronavirus Vaccine I asked, “What if we develop a vaccine for COVID-19 but can’t find enough patients–healthy yet who might get sick–to run a randomized clinical trial?” Exactly that problem is now facing the Oxford vaccine in Britain. An Oxford University vaccine trial has […]

Bloomberg: As sections of the global economy tip-toe toward reopening, it’s becoming clearer that a full recovery from the worst slump since the 1930s will be impossible until a vaccine or treatment is found for the deadly coronavirus. Consumers will stay on edge and companies will be held back as temperature checks and distancing rules […]

My Memorial Day reads: • Military families share Memorial Day with nation mourning coronavirus losses (ABC)• Pat LaFrieda shares the 8 grill accessories he can’t do without, and how to use them (Business Insider)• The U.S. Is Getting Shorter, as Mapmakers Race to Keep Up (New York Times)• How Bad Is The COVID-19 Misinformation Epidemic? […]

Some ways aroung the Federal government’s present refusal to do much for state and localities.

Upwards of 70 percent of the Covid19 death toll in Sweden has been people in elderly care services (as of mid-May 2020). We summarize the Covid19 tragedy in elderly care in Sweden, particularly in the City of Stockholm. We explain the institutional structure of elderly care administration and service provision. Those who died of Covid19 […]

Authored by Pepe Escobar via The Saker blog, The key takeaways of the Two Sessions of the 13th National People’s Congress in Beijing are already in the public domain. In a nutshell: no GDP target for 2020; a budget deficit of at least 3.6% of GDP; one trillion yuan in special treasury bonds; corporate fees/taxes cut by 2.5 […]

From the Washington Examiner, and op-ed, via AEI: Although lockdowns are preventing some deaths, they are undoubtedly increasing deaths by other causes. This virus is killing people not only by infecting millions but also by inducing a policy response that kills people. First, …Isolation kills in many ways. We don’t have data that the lockdowns […]

Nevada’s gaming industry could reopen as soon as June 4, Gov. Steve Sisolak stated Friday. The Nevada Gaming Control Board will meet next week with health officials to determine which sanitation protocols are needed at casinos before reopening.  “The board is firmly aware of its statutory duty to protect the public health and welfare of the Silver […]