No V Recovery: 538.com & IGM COVID-19 Economic Outlook Survey Series

From IGM: The IGM is administering this new survey on the outlook for the economy in collaboration with fivethirtyeight.com. The FiveThirtyEight/IGM COVID-19 Economic Outlook survey complements the existing IGM expert panels and is being overseen by Professors Allan Timmermann and Jonathan Wright. The list of experts answering the questions is identified in the post along […]

Three myths about federal regulation

By Patrick A. McLaughlin and Casey Mulligan, Patrick of course being from GMU/Mercatus: Despite evidence to the contrary, three common myths persist about federal regulations. The first myth is that many regulations concern the environment, but in fact only a small minority of regulations are environmental. The second myth is that most regulations contain quantitative […]

The Elasticity of Mortality with Respect to Recession

I hear a lot about deaths rising with recessions. What does the data indicate about the robustness of such a relationship? Below is a plot of the deaths/population ratio, in logs. Figure 1: Log ratio of deaths to population. NBER defined recession dates shaded gray. Source: CDC, Census via FRED, NBER, and author’s calculations. Estimating […]

Why attitudes to green recovery show how far we've come

The public mood has changed, and this may be the last chance we have to get it right, says The Climate Group CEO Helen Clarkson A lot has changed over the last decade, and not just Richard Branson’s views on government support to ailing businesses. As he appeals to the UK government for a bailout […]

Global healthcare groups join calls for green, healthy Covid-19 recovery

Call comes in letter signed by more than 40 million healthcare professionals backed by World Health Organisation and other influential groups More than 40 million healthcare professionals from around the world have urged global leaders to build a healthy, climate-friendly economic recovery from the coronavirus crisis, in an open letter today backed by the World […]

5 Tips to Reduce Shipping Damage for Small Business

Featured image by rangizzz When you’re a small business, you have to keep operating costs as low as possible. But shipping damage can really eat into your profits. Moreover, it can damage your reputation and cause you to lose repeat business. And when you’re shipping delicate electronics or other fragile items to customers, you need to […]

In Praise of Fallible Leaders

Last week Joe Biden made an off-the-cuff joke that could be interpreted as taking African-American votes for granted. It wasn’t a big deal — Biden, who loyally served Barack Obama, has long had a strong affinity with black voters, and he has made a point of issuing policy proposals aimed at narrowing racial health and […]

Rewatching *Dirty Harry* (no real spoilers)

Released in 1971, as usual with San Francisco movies one can see the reach of NIMBY — the city doesn’t look much larger or busier today.  The subtext of the film is that law and order is collapsing, yet San Francisco was far cleaner back then and street harassment never is presented as a risk.  […]

#COVID19: New Practical Results on Airborne Transmission Indoors

By Lambert Strether of Corrente I was considering using “All that is fomites melts into air,” but I couldn’t bring myself to, so count yourself lucky (and anyhow, it’s not really true). From the beginning of the #COVID19 pandemic, we’ve been washing our hands, masking up, cleaning surfaces, and social distancing. These measures have worked […]

Can You Get A Mortgage In One State To Buy Property In Another State?

The short answer is yes. Yes, you can get a mortgage in one state to buy a property in another state. Due to the extended lockdowns, I’m more motivated than ever to relocate from San Francisco to Honolulu. I have been looking seriously at Honolulu property since 2015 and I’m finally seeing some great deals […]

2:00PM Water Cooler 5/25/2020

By Lambert Strether of Corrente. #COVID19 At reader request, I’ve added this daily chart: The data is the John Hopkins CSSE data. Here is the site. I have changed to a linear scale as a default for US States and territories (see below). At some point, the enormous discrepancy between the course of the pandemic […]

Rebuilding Good Habits after Lockdown

Though I loved working from home, I now realize that it came at a cost – in March and April I destroyed most of the good habits I had worked very hard to build over the last few years.

MiB: Michael Lewis on Coaches and Risk

Be sure to check out our bonus Memorial Day weekend podcast, with Michael Lewis, author of Moneyball, The Big Short, and so many others. The second season of his podcast Against the Rules, just dropped, focusing on Coaches. He describes how telling narrative stories via podcasting allows him to exercise a different set of muscles. […]

Monday links: the course of the virus

Did you know you can stay up-to-date with all of our posts via our daily e-mail newsletter? Sign up today! Quote of the Day “Since the course of the economy will be determined by the course of the virus, I’m not currently sanguine about the economic outlook.” (Bill McBride) Chart of the Day Cyclical sectors […]

Adviser links: complex professionals

Mondays are all about financial adviser-related links here at Abnormal Returns. You can check out last week’s links including a look at how, when and if to bring advisers back into an office setting. Quote of the Day “The financial advisor of the future will be a complex professional, a hybrid knowledge worker who’s fully […]

Under Pressure

Facts“News guy wept and told us, Earth was really dying, cried so much his face was wet, then I knew he was not lying” – Five Years As I write, over 1.6 million Americans have contracted the virus and almost 100,000 have died of it. We have more cases and more deaths than any other […]

It’s the Year 2120. MasterClass Is the Only School Left.

In mid-March, as much of the world withdrew into their homes, the celebrity-powered e-learning platform MasterClass began to notice that people who encountered its advertisements were often watching them in full. This was a testament to the efficacy of what the company calls its “trailers” — glossy spots, set against the rise and fall of […]

Vaccine Testing May Fail Without Human Challenge Trials

In Why Human Challenge Trials Will Be Necessary to Get a Coronavirus Vaccine I asked, “What if we develop a vaccine for COVID-19 but can’t find enough patients–healthy yet who might get sick–to run a randomized clinical trial?” Exactly that problem is now facing the Oxford vaccine in Britain. An Oxford University vaccine trial has […]

Vaccines: Billions in Costs, Trillions in Benefits

Bloomberg: As sections of the global economy tip-toe toward reopening, it’s becoming clearer that a full recovery from the worst slump since the 1930s will be impossible until a vaccine or treatment is found for the deadly coronavirus. Consumers will stay on edge and companies will be held back as temperature checks and distancing rules […]

Overcoming A Disciplinary U4 Disclosure To Reinvent Your Advisory Business

Executive Summary When applying to register within the securities industry, whether as a registered representative of a broker-dealer or an investment advisory representative of an RIA, individuals must complete and file FINRA’s Form U4. The form asks for personal information such as employment and residential history, education, and designations, but is most commonly known for […]

10 Memorial Day Reads

My Memorial Day reads: • Military families share Memorial Day with nation mourning coronavirus losses (ABC)• Pat LaFrieda shares the 8 grill accessories he can’t do without, and how to use them (Business Insider)• The U.S. Is Getting Shorter, as Mapmakers Race to Keep Up (New York Times)• How Bad Is The COVID-19 Misinformation Epidemic? […]

Aston Martin chief to leave, Mercedes-AMG CEO to replace him: source

(Reuters) – Aston Martin (AML.L) Chief Executive Andy Palmer is leaving the business as part of a management shake-up and will be replaced by Tobias Moers, CEO of Mercedes-AMG, a source familiar with the matter told Reuters on Sunday. The luxury carmaker said in an emailed statement that it is reviewing its management team but […]

Stockholm City’s Elderly Care and Covid19

Upwards of 70 percent of the Covid19 death toll in Sweden has been people in elderly care services (as of mid-May 2020). We summarize the Covid19 tragedy in elderly care in Sweden, particularly in the City of Stockholm. We explain the institutional structure of elderly care administration and service provision. Those who died of Covid19 […]

Aston Martin's James Bond Car Comes to Life

James Bond is lonely. It’s just 007 and his gadget-laden 1965 Aston Martin DB5 these days. He hasn’t had any company since his last passenger was ejected. His car phone can’t call anyone; for one thing, its inventor didn’t remember to include a dial. His radar-mapping system is frozen on some place in rural Sussex, […]

Escobar On China: One Country, Two Sessions, Three Threats

Authored by Pepe Escobar via The Saker blog, The key takeaways of the Two Sessions of the 13th National People’s Congress in Beijing are already in the public domain. In a nutshell: no GDP target for 2020; a budget deficit of at least 3.6% of GDP; one trillion yuan in special treasury bonds; corporate fees/taxes cut by 2.5 […]

Japan to end Tokyo's state of emergency, eyes fresh $930 billion stimulus

TOKYO (Reuters) – Japan will lift a state of emergency for Tokyo and remaining areas still facing restrictions on Monday, while the Nikkei reported a plan for new stimulus worth almost $1 trillion to help companies ride out the coronavirus pandemic. Social distancing curbs were loosened for most of the country on May 14 as […]

How Many People Are Being Killed by the Lockdown?

From the Washington Examiner, and op-ed, via AEI: Although lockdowns are preventing some deaths, they are undoubtedly increasing deaths by other causes. This virus is killing people not only by infecting millions but also by inducing a policy response that kills people. First, …Isolation kills in many ways. We don’t have data that the lockdowns […]

Asian shares reverse early gains, eyes on China-U.S. trade relations

SYDNEY (Reuters) – A gauge of Asian stocks pared early gains on Monday amid souring relations between China and the United States, with Hong Kong shares extending losses on mounting fears about future stability in the city. FILE PHOTO: A man wearing protective face mask, following an outbreak of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19), walks in […]

Get Ready For Disinfected Dice As Vegas Plans Reopening 

Nevada’s gaming industry could reopen as soon as June 4, Gov. Steve Sisolak stated Friday. The Nevada Gaming Control Board will meet next week with health officials to determine which sanitation protocols are needed at casinos before reopening.  “The board is firmly aware of its statutory duty to protect the public health and welfare of the Silver […]