Global decarbonisation pathways produced by oil giants BP, Royal Dutch Shell and Equinor to aid their future strategies are incompatible with the Paris Agreement, and would likely “bust” any chances of limiting average warming to 1.5C, fresh research unveiled today by Climate Analytics warns.

In the peer-reviewed paper, published in the journal Nature Communications, the research organisation analysed six institutional future scenarios setting out published between 2020 and mid-2021, with four from the oil majors themselves – including with two from BP – and two developed by the International Energy Agency (IEA).

But researchers found that most of the scenarios they evaluated would be classified as “lower 2°C pathways” – decarbonisation trajectories that offer only a 66 per cent or more chance of limiting global warming below 2°C.

The Paris Agreement, brokered in 2015, sets out an overarching target – signed by almost 200 countries and regions worldwide – to

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