As of today: Figure 1: GDP (bold blue), GDI (green), GDO (orange), GDO+ (red), GDPNow of 9/29 (light blue square), NY Fed nowcast as of 9/29 (pink triangles), St. Louis Fed news index as of 9/28 (inverted purple triangle), Goldman Sachs…
The BEA comprehensive revisions combined with August data changes the business cycle picture somewhat. The downturn in personal income ex-transfers and manufacturing and trade industry sales in 2022H1 look a lot bigger. First, the pre-comprehensive revision outlook (but incorporating the preliminary…
Courtesy of Paweł Skrzypczyński: Note that y/y supercore inflation is higher in previous months, even if decelerating in August.
Today we present a guest post written by Danilo Leiva-León (European Central Bank), Hervé Le Bihan (Bank of France) and Matías Pacce (Bank of Spain). The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the…
In a previous post, I presented forecasts of recession based on probit models using term spread plus short rate, and term spread plus short rate, foreign term spread and debt service ratio. The latter only went of to 2024M03 since BIS…
Remember those warnings of an economic apocalypse in Seattle as the minimum wage was raised up to $15-16 per hour? Mark J. Perry was at the forefront of this (faulty) thesis. Having to teach Contemporary Public Affairs this semester, I was…
Despite some views that GDP growth would be revised downward substantially (see discussion here), the recent trajectory of GDP and GDO was largely unchanged (even if the level over the period 2019 onward was). A lot of the revisions are summarized…
We don’t know much, but we know tax cuts and tariffs are on the agenda. I suppose that, while he might not execute the Fed Chair (that’s reserved for a select few), he is likely to try to otherwise eject him/her…
Coming tomorrow morning – the revisions to GDP over the last five years incorporating lots of new source data may change substantially our understanding of the evolution of economic activity (discussion by Claudia Sahm) (in contrast, last year’s annual revisions didn’t…
CROWE and Young America’s Foundation are bringing Arthur Laffer to speak at UW Madison today (Grainger Hall, Plenary Room, 5:30-6:30 CT). The timing is fortuitous, as the state Senate is moving forward on passing AB386, which would exempt some portion of…
Forecasts of recession vary with indicators (term spread, foreign term spreads, debt-service ratios). Forecasts of economic activity — as measured by industrial produciton — also differ by predictor. I compare the forecasts from the 10yr-3mo spread, the foreign term spread (Ahmed/Chinn),…
From the paper published in Service Science (2023), Alireza Boloori (University of Washington-Tacoma), and Soroush Saghafian (Harvard): Abstract: Lockdown policies, such as stay-at-home orders, are known to be effective in controlling the spread of the novel coronavirus disease 2019. However, concerns…
This is a reprint of a post from 2020 entitled “The Worst Statistical Analysis I Have Seen This Year”, motivated by Mr. Bruce Hall‘s urging that we look at a Judith Curry link. (And I have seen a lot of terrible…
In defending the Kudlow alternative math calculation of net job gains in first 30 months of the Trump and Biden administrations, Mr. Bruce Hall writes: I guess that Joe Biden single-handedly made those jobs [in leisure and hospitality] reappear when the…
Reader Steven Kopits, who as recently as a couple weeks ago argued strenuously that a recession occurred in 2022H1, writes of the Economic Policy Uncertainty Index graph shown in this post: Lines up very nicely with your VMT analytics. And it…
It seems a lot less uncertain since 2021M01. Figure 1: Economic Policy Uncertainty (news based) Index (blue), and average value with Trump dummy (tan). NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: policyuncertainty.com, NBER, and author’s calculations. The Trump administration is…
I saw this screenshot of a post from Dan Scavino, former Deputy Chief of Staff for Communications in the Trump White House, and former caddie for a party at the Trump National Golf Club Westchester (at that time, Briar Hall Country…
The $60 price cap on Russian crude oil was effective 5 December 2022. Here’s a figure of Urals vs. Brent over the past 5 years. Source: TradingEconomics, accessed 22.September.2023. Urals at $78.59 today, vs. Brent at $90.29.
Or, why I still think a recession is possible at 2024H1. The BIS has just released debt-service ratios for 2023Q1. Using this variable, and term spread and foreign term spread, the estimated probability of a recession in 2024Q1 has risen substantially,…
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version appeared at Project Syndicate. September 21, 2023 — Naomi Klein has…
The recession’s start is further delayed as forecasted growth continues. FT article and survey results: q4/q4 growth at 2% [1.3%, 2.5% 90%ile range]. Figure 1: GDP (bold black), Survey of Professional Forecasters median (tan), FT-Booth median survey (light red square), GDPNow…
Industrial production suprised on the upside on Friday, 0.4% vs. 0.1% Bloomberg consensus. Here’s the picture of key indicators followed by the NBER BCDC, plus monthly GDP. Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment, NFP incorporating preliminary benchmark (dark blue), civilian employment (orange),…
Sept 21-22, at the University of Padua, organized by International Institute of Forecasters, University of Padua, American University, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, and IMF. Day 1, Thursday September 21Welcome address by Efrem Castelnuovo (University of Padova) Session 1Moderator: Giovanni Caggiano (University…
GDPNow Q3 revised slightly down (4.9% SAAR), GS about the same (3.2%). Figure 1: GDP (bold black), Survey of Professional Forecasters median (tan), WSJ July mean (teal), GDPNow 9/15 (red square), Goldman Sachs 9/15 (light green square), St. Louis Fed Economic…
Month-on-month CPI headline (core) at (0.1 ppt above) Bloomberg consensus. Month-on-month PPI 0.3 ppts above consensus of 0.4 ppts. Y/Y core CPI continues to decline, while instantaneous core inflation is flat. Figure 1: CPI headline y/y inflation (bold black), core y/y…
Peak price 2023Q4 at $87.7/bbl (WTI), $92.7/bbl (Brent). WTI forecast below: Source: STEO, 12 Sep 2023. Futures imply slightly lower prices than the STEO.
The Bureau of the Census has just released numbers for Official Poverty Rate, as well as the Supplemental (the latter takes into account taxes and transfers, and is more relevant for thinking about the actual welfare of individuals). Source: Census. Source:…
From TradingEconomics, accessed just now: Source: TradingEconomics.com, accessed 9/12/2023. The Urals percent discount relative to Brent is about the same in the last observation plotted as the week of 2/27/2022. Is Brent likely to break $100? Latest DoE EIA forecasts (September,…
Ten year Treasurys and Fed funds: Figure 1: Ten year Treasury constant yield adjusted by ten year expected inflation from Survey of Professional Forecasters median (red square), from Cleveland Fed (green), and TIPS 10 year constant maturity yield, all in %.…
I found this Bloomberg article about the exhaustion of pandemic-benefits related savings of interest and the coming consumption crash of interest. First, it fits into a general commentary regarding American consumer’s behavior. See Jan Groen‘s recent assessment of excess savings. The…
In a project with Laurent Ferrara, we have been examining the properties of financial indicators as predictors of (NBER defined) recessions. In addition to the term spread, we have considered Financial Conditions Indices (Arrigoni-Bobasu-Venditti, Goldman Sachs), the foreign term spread (a…
Reader Steven Kopits, in response to a posting of alternative indicators, writes: I am pretty comfortable with both my H1 2022 call and with the role of gasoline/diesel consumption and VMT as indicators of economic stress or comfort, as the case…
I’m not of the mind that a recession is going to be avoided, despite increasing confidence this is will be the outcome. However, it is hard to find indicators the recession is here, even when looking at measures Steve Kopits (of…
GDPNow at 5.6% (SAAR), St. Louis Fed “news” nowcast, at -0.25%. Goldman Sachs and BofA at 3.1%… Figure 1: GDP (bold black), Survey of Professional Forecasters median (tan), GDPNow (red square), Goldman Sachs, BofA (light green square), St. Louis Fed Economic…
The Dutch CBP tallies world trade volumes. Here’s the total world trade series, compared to total industrial production (production weighted), since 2000. Figure 1: World trade (blue), and world industrial production ex-construction (tan), both 2010=100, s.a., on log scale. NBER defined…
A reporter asked me today whether this time was different, especially in light of all the positive coincident indicators (Q3 GDPNow has been at 5.6% for a couple weeks; Fed staff has upgraded q4/q4 growth, Goldman Sachs pegs recession probability at…
The Brave-Butters-Kelley monthly GDP for June is out. Here’re growth rates of this series compared against the SPGMI (formerly IHS/Markit) monthly GDP, and the Philadelphia Fed’s coincident index, which should track GDP. Figure 1: Month-on-month annualized growth rate of monthly GDP…
Anonymous tells a story about an old engineer regaling people with aphorism like “you may know the significant digits but do you know the significance of the number”, in talking about what the average joe is experiencing. Here are some easily…
Today, we’re pleased to present a guest contribution by Rob Fairlie Professor of public policy and economics at the Luskin School of Public Policy at UCLA. Federal, state and local governments spend billions of dollars each year on incubators, training programs, loan…
Instantaneous (Eeckhout, 2023) PCE and CPI inflation. Figure 1: Instantaneous PCE deflator inflation (blue), core PCE deflator (tan), per Eeckhout, T=12, a=4 (bold red). Red dashed line at 2% inflation. NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: BEA via FRED,…
Reader JohnH asserts pgl makes up crazy output gaps. My search of Economists View turns up this 2017 exchange. I don’t see a “crazy” assertion by pgl (certainly not as crazy as the Friedman view of a -18% gap), even if…
One argument for maintaining tight monetary policy is inflationary pressures — but the question is whether it’s from a positive output gap or cost-push shocks (or expectations). One big question is what is the size of the output gap. Figure 1:…
With the employment release, and the monthly GDP from SPGMI, we have the following picture of key macro indicators. Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment, NFP (dark blue), Bloomberg consensus as of 8/31 assuming no revisions to previous months (blue +), civilian…
NFP employment at 187K (vs. Bloomberg consensus 170K), while average hourly earnings y/y up 4.3% (vs. consensus 4.4%). Combined with to June figures and preliminary benchmark revision, we have a picture of a cooler labor market. Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment…
Does an error correction model of the Divisia M4 quantity theory or a old style expectations and supply shock augmented Phillips curve fit the post 2019 period better (using 1998-2019 data)? Answer: The Phillips curve works better. To be fair to…
Reader JohnH asks “is there a net US GDP forecast that includes the depreciation of defense capital?”. For what I think is being asked (commonly known as NDP, or net domestic product), the answer is de facto yes. That’s because the…
The variability of velocity calculated using divisia money indices is not necessarily lower than that using a conventional monetary aggregate, i.e., M2. Figure 1: Log GDP divided by M2 (bold black), by MZM divisia (tan), by M1M divisia (green), by M2M…
With personal income, consumption, and manufacturing and trade industry sales released, no downturn yet. If consensus holds, the momentum continues into August. Here are some key indicators followed by the NBER BCDC, along with monthly GDP and GDPNow. Figure 1: Nonfarm…
So far, slowing employment growth. Figure 1: Private nonfarm payroll employment (bold black), preliminary benchmark (gray square), Bloomberg consensus as of 8/30 (blue +), QCEW private, seasonally adjusted by author using X-13 (teal), from ADP (tan), 000’s, s.a. Source: BLS, Bloomberg,…
Reader Econned asks me for a critique of ecological monetarism. I don’t have one overall assessment, but I will say that I do not understand (1) how Cameron Harwick came up with the conclusion that the case for ecological monetarism was…
Sponsored Content: This article is made possible through the generous support of AllTopCash.com for charitable/humanitarian reasons.48999
Dear Donors,
We hope this message finds you in good health and high spirits. We are reaching out to you today with a heartfelt appeal for your support in sustaining our health practice. Over the past two decades, our firm has been dedicated to providing specialized care to those in need, and now we turn to you, our valued community, to help us continue this noble mission.
Since our establishment in 2003, our practitioner, a seasoned researcher, teacher, and healer, has devoted over 30 years of his life to serving individuals who have experienced the unimaginable. His journey began by offering care to people returning from conflict zones, wars, natural and man-made disasters, and those who have been victims of torture. Through his expertise, he has been able to alleviate the physical and emotional burdens that these individuals carry.
Our practitioner’s specialization lies in the treatment of psychotrauma and Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD), understanding the profound impact they have on health and life, not only for the individuals directly affected but also for their loved ones. Additionally, he has dedicated himself to providing long-term support for those battling physical and mental injuries, cancerous pathologies, genetic diseases, and other challenging conditions.
Through his unwavering commitment, he has helped and cared for several thousand people who were in desperate need, enabling them to not only survive but thrive. For those who lacked financial means, he has always offered care free of charge, allowing them to receive the support they needed, regardless of their circumstances. Those who could afford it were encouraged to contribute what they could, fostering a sense of community and shared responsibility.
The impact of our practitioner’s work cannot be overstated. Lives have been saved, hope has been restored, and the journey towards healing has been made possible for countless individuals. However, we find ourselves at a critical juncture where we urgently need your help and support to ensure the continuity of our services.
By making a donation to our health practice, you will directly contribute to the well-being and transformation of lives. Your generosity will empower us to continue providing essential care, support, and treatment to those who are most vulnerable. Your contribution will help us acquire the necessary resources, develop innovative therapies, and expand our reach to make a lasting impact on the lives of individuals and communities in need.
Join us in making a difference today. Your support will not only sustain our practice but also enable us to extend our services to those who might otherwise go without the care they desperately require. Together, we can create a brighter, healthier future for all.
To make a donation, please visit our donation page. Every contribution, no matter the size, makes a significant difference in the lives of those we serve.
Thank you for considering our appeal and for your compassion in supporting our health practice. Together, we can continue to save lives and inspire hope.
With deepest gratitude,
Yan A. Reichlen de Meldegg
Practitioner in Neusopsychology
The process is secure