Trend CPI Down?

  • Post category:Finance

M/M headline vs. core vs. trimmed mean vs. median: Figure 1: Headline CPI inflation (blue), core CPI (tan), 16% trimmed mean CPI (green), median CPI (red), m/m annualized, %. NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: BLS, Cleveland Fed via…

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On the Eve of November FOMC

  • Post category:Finance

Expected economic activity, medium term market based inflation expectations, and risk/uncertainty measures. Figure 1:  Ten year-three month Treasury spread (blue), ten year-two year spread (red), both in %. Source: FRB via FRED, Treasury, and author’s calculations. Inversion of both term spreads is…

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Guest Contribution: “The Fed’s swap lines: Narrow circle, broad effect?”

  • Post category:Finance

Today, we are pleased to present a guest contribution written by Joshua Aizenman (University of Southern California). In the Reykjavik roundtable on global economic challenges, September 1-2, 2022, organized by Robert McCauley, Robert Aliber, Gylfi Zoega, and Mar Gudmundsson, I overviewed my research…

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Industrial Production in the Recession of 1920-21, Compared to a Hypothetical 2022 Recession

  • Post category:Finance

Here’s industrial production (Fed, Miron-Romer) index during the 1920-21 recession, as reader Steven Kopits thinks this is the template for a conjectured current ongoing recession (or incipient – the conjecture keeps on changing). Figure 1: Industrial produciton from Federal Reserve (blue),…

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Two Days before GDP Q3 Release: What Remains of the 2022H1 Recession Thesis?

  • Post category:Finance

Monthly indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, plus GDP and GDO,  plus IHS-Markit (nee Macroeconomic Advisers) monthly GDP: Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment (dark blue), Bloomberg consensus as of 10/25 for NFP (blue +), civilian employment (orange), industrial…

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How Do You Know Where You’re Going If You Don’t Know Where You Are? (China Statistics Edition)

  • Post category:Finance

A question becoming increasingly relevant as China cuts back on statistical releases. From Burn-Murdoch at FT: In this context, one can view the recent delay of Q3 GDP release as emblematic of a continuous process of dismantling the technocratic elements of…

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