Weekly Macro Indicators and Nowcasts on the Eve of SVB

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Deceleration was still in place, according to the WEI.  Figure 4: Lewis-Mertens-Stock Weekly Economic Index (blue), OECD Weekly Tracker (tan), Baumeister-Leiva-Leon-Sims Weekly Economic Conditions Index for US plus 2% trend (green). Source: NY Fed via FRED, OECD, WECI, and author’s calculations. Still, nowcasts and tracking…

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Month-on-Month Core PPI at 0%

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Undershoots consensus at 0.4%. M/M headline at -0.1 vs 0.3%. Figure 1: Annualized month-on-month PPI inflation (black), core PPI (tan), and core goods PPI (green), all in %. Source: BLS, and author’s calculations. Instantaneous inflation (T=12, a=4) exhibits the same downward…

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“China Signals Stability With Surprise Move to Keep PBOC Governor”

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From Bloomberg yesterday: China reappointed several top economic officials in a leadership reshuffle Sunday, giving investors greater continuity as Beijing overhauls financial regulation and grapples with escalating tensions with the US. People’s Bank of China Governor Yi Gang, 65, will remain…

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r vs. g

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Olivier Blanchard and Larry Summers had an interesting exchange about interest rates and secular stagnation, and target inflation rates today, at PIIE. Blanchard mentioned the evolution of r vs. g as a key issue in thinking about secular stagnation, and this…

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Recession 6 Months Away?

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Following up on the proposition that the recession is seemingly always six months away (as noted in WSJ’s ‘Godot’ recession”), I thought it would be interesting to see if the market had been saying a similar thing. To wit, here’s the…

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The “Godot” Recession?

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From WSJ: “It’s the ‘Godot’ recession,” said Ray Farris, chief economist at Credit Suisse. Mr. Farris found himself among a small minority of economists last fall who predicted the economy would narrowly skirt a downturn this year. Every six months, economists…

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Expect More of This

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House Representative Gooden’s recent comments discussed in LA Times: On Wednesday, Rep. Lance Gooden (R-Texas) appeared on a Fox News show to discuss President Biden’s appointment of Dominic Ng to lead the country’s trade interest in Asia. House Republicans, including Gooden,…

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If the Housing *Is* the Business Cycle, What Does this Picture Mean?

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That’s what Ed Leamer noted back in 2007. Residential construction employment, spending, housing starts, new home sales, all normalized to 2021M11. Figure 1: Residential construction employment (blue), residential construction spending deflated by PCE (tan), housing starts (green), new homs sales of…

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Seasonal Adjustment in the Wake of Big Shocks, Economic and Otherwise

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Consider the following three examples of seasonally adjusted vs. not seasonally adjusted data. Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment, 000’s, seasonally adjusted (blue), not seasonally adjusted (tan). NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: BLS via FRED, NBER. The deep trough…

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Volatility in External Demand

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Advance estimate for January 2023 goods exports out today. Big jump, compared to the pre-pandemic past, but not compared to the recent past. Figure 1: Month-on-month growth in US goods exports, seasonally adjusted (blue). NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray.…

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Update – Data Paranoia Watch: “I’ve read that others think the CES was manipulated to provide a more rosy picture heading into the election”

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Reader Steve Kopits writes about the debate over employment numbers: At the same time, I thought it possible that both surveys were in fact correct, but garbled with the effect of the recovery from the suppression, thereby creating misleading impressions because…

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PCE Inflation – Headline, Core, Trimmed Month-on-Month and Instantaneous

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Core PCE y/y 4.7% vs. 4.3% consensus, headline 5.4% vs. 5.0%. Figure 1: Month-on-month PCE inflation (black), Core PCE (teal), trimmed PCE (tan), and instantaneous PCE inflation, T=12,a=4 (purple). NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Red dashed line at expanded…

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