Boloori & Saghafian, “Health and Economic Impacts of Lockdown Policies in the Early Stage of COVID-19 in the United States”

  • Post category:Finance

From the paper published in Service Science (2023), Alireza Boloori (University of Washington-Tacoma), and Soroush Saghafian (Harvard): Abstract: Lockdown policies, such as stay-at-home orders, are known to be effective in controlling the spread of the novel coronavirus disease 2019. However, concerns…

Continue ReadingBoloori & Saghafian, “Health and Economic Impacts of Lockdown Policies in the Early Stage of COVID-19 in the United States”

Some Dubious Coincident Indicators of Recession, Again: VMT, gasoline supplied, EPU vs Heavy Truck Sates and Sahm Rule

  • Post category:Finance

Reader Steven Kopits, who as recently as a couple weeks ago argued strenuously that a recession occurred in 2022H1, writes of the Economic Policy Uncertainty Index graph shown in this post: Lines up very nicely with your VMT analytics. And it…

Continue ReadingSome Dubious Coincident Indicators of Recession, Again: VMT, gasoline supplied, EPU vs Heavy Truck Sates and Sahm Rule

FT-Booth September Survey

  • Post category:Finance

The recession’s start is further delayed as forecasted growth continues. FT article and survey results: q4/q4 growth at 2% [1.3%, 2.5% 90%ile range]. Figure 1: GDP (bold black), Survey of Professional Forecasters median (tan), FT-Booth median survey (light red square), GDPNow…

Continue ReadingFT-Booth September Survey

Conference: “Uncertainty, Economic Activity, and Forecasting in a Changing Environment”

  • Post category:Finance

Sept 21-22, at the University of Padua, organized by International Institute of Forecasters, University of Padua, American University, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, and IMF. Day 1, Thursday September 21Welcome address by Efrem Castelnuovo (University of Padova) Session 1Moderator: Giovanni Caggiano (University…

Continue ReadingConference: “Uncertainty, Economic Activity, and Forecasting in a Changing Environment”

Inflation in August

  • Post category:Finance

Month-on-month CPI headline (core) at (0.1 ppt above) Bloomberg consensus. Month-on-month PPI 0.3 ppts above consensus of 0.4 ppts. Y/Y core CPI continues to decline, while instantaneous core inflation is flat. Figure 1: CPI headline y/y inflation (bold black), core y/y…

Continue ReadingInflation in August

World Trade Volume Stalls

  • Post category:Finance

The Dutch CBP tallies world trade volumes. Here’s the total world trade series, compared to total industrial production (production weighted), since 2000. Figure 1: World trade (blue), and world industrial production ex-construction (tan), both 2010=100, s.a., on log scale. NBER defined…

Continue ReadingWorld Trade Volume Stalls

Guest Contribution: “Startups create fewer jobs and do not survive as long as previously reported”

  • Post category:Finance

Today, we’re pleased to present a guest contribution by Rob Fairlie Professor of public policy and economics at the Luskin School of Public Policy at UCLA.  Federal, state and local governments spend billions of dollars each year on incubators, training programs, loan…

Continue ReadingGuest Contribution: “Startups create fewer jobs and do not survive as long as previously reported”

Close to/at Target Inflation

  • Post category:Finance

Instantaneous (Eeckhout, 2023) PCE and CPI inflation. Figure 1: Instantaneous PCE deflator inflation (blue), core PCE deflator (tan), per Eeckhout, T=12, a=4 (bold red). Red dashed line at 2% inflation. NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: BEA via FRED,…

Continue ReadingClose to/at Target Inflation

Velocity, 1967-2023Q2

  • Post category:Finance

The variability of velocity calculated using divisia money indices is not necessarily lower than that using a conventional monetary aggregate, i.e., M2. Figure 1: Log GDP divided by M2 (bold black), by MZM divisia (tan), by M1M divisia (green), by M2M…

Continue ReadingVelocity, 1967-2023Q2