1. Semantic search for all CWTs. 2. Job postings for Ph.D economists are down. 3. On the new Nvidia book. 4. Krugman’s last NYT column (though he is not retiring more generally he says). 5. Thread on quantum computing.  And Scott…

By Edmund White, I enjoyed this paragraph from the preface: In A Boy’s Own Story I touched on all the themes of my youth: the exaggerated consolations of the imagination; the sexy but crushing teenage culture of the 1950s; the importance…

Probably not, or so I argue in my latest Bloomberg column.  Excerpt: The most obvious argument against the proposal is simply that uniform taxation is better than selective tax exemptions. If a lower capital gains tax rate is preferable, then the…

Today’s leading historians of science have “debunked” the notion that religious dogmatism and science were largely in conflict in Western history: conflict was rare and inconsequential, the relationship between religion and science was constructive overall. This view stands in sharp contrast…

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When does it make sense to organize most of your urban activity on a (more or less) straight line? If land transport is very costly, as in much earlier times, and a river is available, you might build much of the…

1. Nick Bostrom on The Cosmic Host. 2. Alexander Berger on the risks and benefits of kidney donation. 3. Who owns the drones flying over New Jersey (NYT)? 4. Some astronomy photos of the year. 5. al-Julani comment, on institutions. 6.…

Here is one of them: In the 2020s, over 16% of movies have colons in the title (Like Superman: Man of Steel), up almost 300% since the 1990s. And: The Telugu-language action film Devara: Part 1 made more money ($5.5m) in US cinemas than…

The offensive vs. defensive framing seems wrong, at least temporarily. It should be motivated vs. unmotivated, with drones favoring the motivated. A competent drone capability requires building a supply chain, setting up a small manufacturing/assembly operation, and training skilled operators. They need…

The author is Bartle Bull, and the subtitle is A 5,000-Year History of Iraq.  Excerpt: Another is the extraordinary length of what might be called an East-West conflict in Iraq.  The Roman-Persian wars lasted from 54 BC until 628 AD.  Nine…

1. The Knausgaard library. 2. A new paper on the diminishing returns to research. 3. Those new service sector jobs: “How to Make $100 an Hour Scratching Someone’s Back.” (WSJ) 4. Shruti podcast with Pravin Krishna on trade. 5. Jennifer Doleac…

You don’t have to upload any book into the system.  The Great Cosmic Mind is smarter than most of the books you could jam into the context window.  Just start asking questions.  The core intuition is simply that you should be…

The prediction of inflation dynamics—how prices change over time—has increasingly confounded modern macroeconomists. Throughout much of the twentieth century, there seemed to be clear relationships linking the money supply, economic slack, and price levels. Monetarism, the school of thought that posits…

But a new paper by Ryan Oprea challenges the idea that we even need something like Prospect Theory at all. Oprea hypothesizes that a lot of the seemingly “irrational” experimental behaviors are really just due to the excessive complexity of the task they’re…

1. Brazilian economists are seeking a kind of occupational licensing (Portuguese). 2. Sovereign AI project for Thailand? 3. Is there a law for AI “capacity density”? 4. More on AI and board games. 5. Royal Mint honors Macca with his own…

The latest sought-after home amenity? Personal fire hydrants. The logic is that when there’s a major disaster there may not be enough fire engines to protect every house in an area. If homeowners have their own hydrant ready to go—along with…

Here is a gloomy account from Vladimir Mirov: Ruble depreciation will contribute to inflation even further, as Russia is continued to be heavily reliant on imports – this is a kind of self-sustaining spiral. I also strongly disagree with those who…

There is a new translation by Joseph Luzzi, and I find it an order of magnitude better than the older treatments.  It somehow communicates the strangeness of this work in a new and unprecedented way.  You can order it here. I…

Here is the NYT announcement. I hope they consider Noah Smith as the obvious replacement…

It was so much fun we ran over and did about ninety minutes instead of the usual hour.  Here is the audio, video, and transcript.  Here is part of the episode summary: Tyler sat down with Stephen to discuss the state…

That is the theme of a new Substack by Pieter Garicano, here is one excerpt: These answers, according to a recent paper by Olivier Coste and Yann Coatanlem, two French investors, miss the point: the reason more capital doesn’t flow towards high-leverage ideas…

Bahala says each of his calls at Concentrix is monitored by an artificial intelligence (AI) program that checks his performance. He says his volume of calls has increased under the AI’s watch. At his previous call center job, without an AI…

That is the topic of my latest Bloomberg column, here is one bit: Fortunately, there is new research. We have entered the age where innovative methods of measurement, such as computer vision and deep learning, can reveal how American life has changed.…

This is very interesting, and I think a world first: a local government in China has just sold its sky, literally. This is the government of Pingyin County, Jinan, Shandong Province who sold for 924 million yuan (approximately $130 million) a…

A unilateral pause won’t be as helpful as Musk and Ramaswamy seem to think. Many businesses, especially big businesses, have to certify their legal compliance to government agencies—most notably via financial reports to the Securities and Exchange Commission, where false certifications…

It is now plausible to envision scenarios in which global demand for crude oil falls to essentially zero by the end of this century, driven by improvements in clean energy technologies, adoption of stringent climate policies, or both. This paper asks…

Stanford Review: …Several freshmen I have talked to have bemoaned their mandatory COLLEGE classes that are contract graded, meaning that students will receive an A if their work is turned in on time regardless of quality. One frosh even told me…

1. Are humble scientists trusted more? 2. I thought this was hilarious (you won’t), that just shows how far gone I am. 3. The labor market regulatory culture that is Belgium. 4. FBI markets in everything. 5. Without weight loss drugs,…

Definitive, this is by far the best biography of Mondrian we have or are likely to get.  I am a longstanding Mondrian fan, and have read much about him, but learned new things on virtually every page.  The book is also…

Poor Things The Delinquents [Los Delincuentes], from Argentina, tragicomedy The Teacher’s Lounge All of Us Strangers Anselm The Zone of Interest Smoke Sauna Sisterhood You Can Call Me Bill Lynch/Oz Miracle Worker, that is a very old Arthur Penn movie, about…

The most dismal stockpickers in the cabinet included the minister for health, labour and welfare, the arm of government ultimately responsible for the $1.45tn Government Pension Investment Fund, the world’s largest pool of retirement savings. Here is more from the FT,…

After six games the match is tied.  Observers agree that the games have been of low quality and mostly not very interesting.  Both players have been reluctant to exploit potential opportunities.  If you don’t already know, Ding has been suffering from…

John Ma, Polis: A New History of the Ancient Greek City-State from the Early Iron Age to the End of Antiquity.  I didn’t read much of this book, mostly because it is too good for me to understand just how good…

What to see, what to do, and where to eat?  I thank you all in advance for your suggestions…

Worries about the economy, conflicts abroad and uncertainty over the election pushed readers toward the publication in droves. Bible sales are up 22% in the U.S. through the end of October, compared with the same period last year, according to book…

I would say that overall I am more suspicious of “assisted dying” policies than are many of my libertarian friends.  I am fine with legalizing suicide, but I get nervous when a state — especially a less than fully competent, fiscally…

For reasons you can guess at, debanking has been the topic du jour in my Twitter feed. I will only report the following.  On this last Friday, both Alex and I (coincidentally) each wanted to send money through the U.S. banking…

I will be doing a Conversation with him.  So what should I ask?

Here is the link, “Prohibits fraudulently taking money by “pretended fortune telling.”” Seen referenced somewhere on Twitter.

This paper examines how unauthorized immigration affects the fiscal health of local governments in the United States. Using detailed data on unauthorized immigrants’ countries of origin and arrival dates from the Syracuse TRAC database, we isolate immigration flows driven by social,…

China’s long-term bond yields have fallen below Japan’s for the first time, as investors bet that the world’s second-biggest economy will become bogged down by the deflation that has long afflicted its neighbour. A rally in 30-year Chinese government bonds has…