No hints at a ‘Twist’, refuses to speculate on repo issues, no pushback against recent bond vol, and no mention of SLR exemption. That is not what the market wanted to hear… Treasury yields are spiking with 10Y well above 1.50%… And 5Y is back above the critical 75bps level… Real yields are surging, and […]

Will he or won’t he? The bond and stock markets are definitely calling Jay Powell’s bluff ahead of his speech as chatter of The Fed “losing control” of the yield curve and the potential disaster of the expiration of SLR exemption have the Fed Chair cornered into, at minimum, hinting at one and/or the other […]

Authored by Jordan Schachtel via The American Institute for Economic Research, It took an entire year, but lockdowns and mask mandates are officially incredibly unpopular with half of the country, to the point that governors are rapidly making sweeping changes to their year-long COVID-19 policies. Jumping onto the coattails of pro-individual freedom leaders like governors […]

by Calculated Risk on 3/04/2021 11:56:00 AM

The House of Representatives in the late hours of March 3 passed a sweeping election reform bill that, if signed into law, would affect multiple aspects of the electoral process and campaign financing. As The Epoch Times’ Mimi Hguyen Ly notes, H.R. 1, also called the For the People Act, passed the Democrat-controlled House on a largely […]

Jim Grant of Grant’s Interest Rate Observer recently made an appearance on WealthTrack with Conseulo Mack to talk “Financial Bubbles of Historic Proportions”. Grant covered numerous topics on the macroeconomic picture.  On Interest Rates “Basic rate of interest does the following: it helps us to connect the present with the future, it discounts future cash […]

From JPM’s Market Intelligence report published by Andrew Tyler The global sell-off continues but rotation is the better description. We continue to see large-cap Tech being sold to fund the Reopening/Reflation trade. Client conversations reveal that much of this selling is in the more liquid names so there are now concerns about concentration risk should […]

To bee or not to bee, that is the question…  For days Barstool Sports’ Dave Portnoy pumped VanEck Vectors Social Sentiment ETF (ticker BUZZ) to his 2.4 million followers. Telling everyone how he’s putting his “face behind,” his “reputation behind,” and everything he represents behind this new ETF.  Well, on opening day, VanEck Vectors Social Sentiment ETF (ticker […]

Update (1050am ET): Crude gains accelerated two hours after the start of today’s meeting following headlines that OPEC+ has agreed to keep output unchanged in April, with a delegate adding that OPEC+ decided not to hike output by 500kb/d in April. Energy Intel’s Amena Bakr adds that Saudi Arabia may voluntarily extend its cut to […]

We’re starting to get a better understanding of the Texas credit crisis involving power companies operating on the state’s power grid following the Arctic blast and severe winter storms that pounded the area last month, resulting in wholesale electricity prices soaring to more than 9,000 a megawatt-hour.  Earlier this week, court documents showed Brazos Electric Power Cooperative, […]

Authored by Michael Lebowitz via RealInvestmentAdvice.com, Plinko was made famous on the TV show The Price is Right. To play the game, a contestant drops a coin into one of the many slots at the top of the Plinko board. Then they watch the coin fall, bouncing off pegs until it reaches the bottom. The […]

Yves here. Normally the big action in litigation is when cases are first filed and courts issue rulings. But sometimes the byplay can be entertaining and revealing. Even though the mavens seem to think the Arizona case before the Supreme Court on its restrictions on voting rights is bound to yield some concessions to the […]

by Calculated Risk on 3/04/2021 09:52:00 AM

by Calculated Risk on 3/04/2021 08:40:00 AM

Canada’s National Advisory Committee on Immunization (NACI), a scientific advisory group to the government, has made a forceful and dramatic statement strongly favoring First Doses First (delay the second dose.) This is a very big deal for the entire world. Basically NACI have endorsed everything that Tyler and I have said on First Doses First […]

Cuttlefish show self-control, pass ‘marshmallow test’ Live Science. Le Bourgeois Céphalopode. Astonishing moment ‘Britain’s hardest cat’ sees off a much bigger FOX after tense standoff over food Daily Mail The man who saves forgotten cats in Fukushima’s nuclear zone Reuters Fukushima timeline from the perspective of workers in the control room; amazing stuff: Later today […]

Yves here. Most commentary on the Biden stimulus plan has focused on some of the programs or the overall level of spending, and not the structure and philosophy. This article describes why continuing a classic neoliberal approach is at best a band-aid. By Albena Azmanova, an associate professor of politics at the University of Kent’s Brussels School […]

Yves here. Australia and Maryland have both sought to tax Google’s and Facebook’s online advertising putting their broader role the spotlight. Both platforms make considerable use of traditional media content while pulling digital ad revenues away from them. Old school publishers had already suffered due to loss of classified ad income to Craigslist and in […]

Yves here. I am loath to give either Bitcoin or the current widespread investor belief that big time inflation is upon us any attention. However, the things I really want to talk about take a bit of work, and I’m buried by administrativa that is getting in the way of girding my loins to do […]

I’ve already posted about my chess teaching, and my grocery store work (here and here), my next job was as managing editor of the Austrian Economics Newsletter, for 1980-1981.  I was only eighteen (and nineteen) then, so for me this was a big step up. I was responsible for commissioning content, making sure authors got […]

Authored by John W. Whitehead & Nisha Whitehead via The Rutherford In “How ‘secure’ do our homes remain if police, armed with no warrant, can pound on doors at will and … forcibly enter?” – Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, the lone dissenter in Kentucky v. King Americans are not safe in their homes. Not […]

Authored by Melissa Zhu via The South China Morning Post, More than 5,000 members of China’s political elite are expected to converge on Beijing in early March for the biggest event on the political calendar. Known as the “two sessions”, or lianghui, the annual gatherings of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) and the […]

Something crazy happened in the repo market today: according to Curvature repo guru Scott Skyrm, the 10Y traded as low as -4.00% in repo, a record low level and an unprecedented dislocation for the world’s most liquid security, one with potentially tremendous consequences for what Jerome Powell may say tomorrow. Incidentally, Skyrm was far more […]

The US Army is racing to modernize its forces. A new Infantry Squad Vehicle (ISV) recently showed up to Yuma Proving Ground for harsh testing in southwestern Arizona, according to Yuma Sun. Isaac Rodriguez, team leader for the proving ground’s combat automotive division, said testing for the new ISV began in early February and will end […]

Authored by Adam Andrzejewski, originally published in Forbes This week, the U.S. House passed, along party lines, the $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan Act of 2021. A vote in the U.S. Senate is expected soon. Buried within the 591-page bill is a $350 billion bailout for 50 states, tribal governments, U.S. territories, and more than […]

The continued exodus out of New York carries on… And it isn’t just corporations packing up their entire operations and moving to tax havens like Florida, as we have noted for the last year, it’s also firms cutting back on the amount of corporate real estate they use in the city. JP Morgan is the […]

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times, U.S. Customs and Border Protection officials said they believe the victims killed in the collision in Southern California just miles from the U.S.-Mexico border were illegal immigrants who were smuggled through a dilapidated border fence near Calexico. A Ford Expedition carrying more than two-dozen people collided with a semi-truck in Imperial County, California, […]

Authored by Michael Snyder via TheMostImportantNews.com, Is the quality of life in America getting better, or is it getting worse?  Americans certainly have a lot more “money” than they did when I was a kid, but that doesn’t mean much because the U.S. dollar has only a fraction of the value that it did back […]

In yet another great example of government efficiency, Miami Beach is prepping for a Spring Break Covid crackdown. Don’t check your calendar. Yes, it’s 2021.  It’s ironic, since last year – you know, before we even had vaccines and understood fully just how deadly (or not deadly) Covid was – Miami Beach was the go-to place to […]

The goods production side of the economy continues to recover, and monthly GDP comes close to October 2010 levels. Nonfarm payroll employment as implied by the Bloomberg survey is for a slight increase of 182K. Some key indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee. Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment (dark blue), Bloomberg consensus […]

Authored by Gunther Schnabl and Taiki Murai via The Mises Institute, The corona crisis has intensified the discussion about the zombification of the economy; enterprises have become more dependent on government bailouts, loans, subsidies, short-time working benefits, and loans from central banks. Governments around the world claim the measures to be only temporary. Yet Japan’s experience […]

by Calculated Risk on 3/03/2021 07:10:00 PM

Enlarge this image William McChesney Martin, the man who defended the Federal Reserve against an attack by the President. Federal Reserve Board/Federal Reserve [Public domain] Federal Reserve Board/Federal Reserve [Public domain] In the years before 1951, the Federal Reserve took orders from the Treasury, and by extension, from the President. The President would request that […]

That is the topic of my latest Bloomberg column, here is one excerpt: To be clear, public health officials are encouraging additional vaccinations. But they don’t seem to realize how much their own ostensibly “careful” rhetoric makes vaccination sound unappealing. “Not talking up the vaccines” is a sin of omission, not a sin of commission, […]

by Calculated Risk on 3/03/2021 02:15:00 PM

By Lambert Strether of Corrente. Bird Song of the Day San Diego, California. Quite the tour de force! #COVID19 At reader request, I’ve added this daily chart from 91-DIVOC. The data is the Johns Hopkins CSSE data. Here is the site. I feel I’m engaging in a macabre form of tape-watching, because I don’t think […]

by Calculated Risk on 3/03/2021 01:05:00 PM

Newly minted CDC Director Rochelle Walensky wants residents of Texas and Mississippi to continue wearing face masks despite the governors there lifting COVID-19 restrictions amid a decline in cases. CDC DIrector Rochelle Walensky “I think we, the CDC, have been very clear that now is not the time to release all restrictions,” said Walensky during […]

For the first time, a team of researchers from China, the US, Norway, and the UK, have spotted an eye-catching phenomenon above the North Pole, in what they’re calling a “space hurricane.”  The new study said a 600-mile-wide swirling mass of plasma “rained” electrons down on the North Pole. It was only until now that […]

Senate Democrats and Joe Biden struck a last minute deal over Biden’s $1.9 trillion pandemic relief bill, choosing to keep federal unemployment benefit payments at $400 per week but phase out the measure’s $1,400 stimulus checks more quickly. As Politico notes, the decision, which speeds up the phasing out of checks, reflects a demand from […]

Authored by Steve Watson via Summit News, Internal documents outline that the Biden administration is planning to integrate 117,000 migrant youths and children in 2021, an exponential increase on previous years. The information, obtained by Axios, also indicates that shelter facilities are expected to be overrun this month, and that Biden will accelerate the release of […]

Here we go again with yet more vague “threats” by nebulous militant right-wing groups targeting the Capitol which will no doubt be met with an additional mass increase in security measures (and budgets no doubt) walling the public off from the whole area…  Yikes. U.S. Capitol Police statement just out: “We have obtained intelligence that shows […]

There has been spreading chatter that during Jerome Powell’s upcoming appearance at a Wall Street Journal virtual event on Thursday at noon, the Fed Chair may unveil changes to Fed bond buying and potentially unveil Operation Twist 3.0. As DataTrek‘s Nicholas Colas asks, “will he preview a change in the central bank’s quantitative easing program, […]

Authored by Doug Kass via Seabreeze Partners, By following the path of least resistance and opting for political expedience and untested monetary and fiscal policies – economic and market risks are now heightened At the same time equities are making all-time highs Monday, on the lightest volume day of the year for the Nasdaq, the […]

Update ( 1119 ET): Law enforcement has cleared Daytona Beach International Airport (DAB) from a “potential threat” according to local law enforcement. The airport will soon begin normal operations.  Minutes ago, DAB tweeted:  “The airport terminal has been swept and cleared and is open. Passengers should check with their airlines regarding flight schedules.”  Great news – no […]

Billionaire Leon Cooperman says Sen. Elizabeth Warren’s (D-MA) “ultra-millionaire” wealth tax is a terrible idea because people will simply hide their wealth. “The idea has no merit. It’s foolish. It probably is not legal,” Cooperman told “Squawk Box” on Wednesday. “If the wealth tax passes, go out and buy yourself some gold because people are […]

Te Senate may begin debate on President Biden’s $1.9 trillion COVID-19 relief package as soon as Wednesday, as Majority Leader Chuck Schumer predicted on Monday that the chamber has “some late nights” ahead this week, according to Politico. The goal is to pass the stimulus into law before March 14, when enhanced unemployment benefits are […]

by Calculated Risk on 3/03/2021 10:13:00 AM

After my interview with Peter Lynch last week, I jotted down some of my favorite highlights from our conversation. I argued that Fidelity Vice Chairman Peter Lynch has the greatest long-term track record in terms of pure stock-picking with Tom Keene and Lisa Abramowicz. One small note: Tom misspoke, this interview was held at MIT, […]

Yves here. Jomo Kwame Sundaram has been writing regularly on how wealthy countries are costing lives in poor nations via vaccine hoarding and refusing to give breaks on licensing. Nicholas Corbishey gave a long-form treatment yesterday on how that is playing out in Latin America, giving Russia and China the chance to play vaccine diplomacy. […]