“My favorite things Hungary” — my revisionist take

Way back in 2011, when I was visiting Hungary, I did a post in typical MR style: My Favorite Things Hungary.  I had no particular political point in mind, and indeed the current disputes over Hungary did not quite exist back then.  Nonetheless, if you survey the list, just about every one of my favorites […]

Farewell To Yet Another Failed Monetary System

Authored by Egon von Greyerz via GoldSwitzerland.com, The beginning of the end of the current monetary system started exactly 50 years ago. In the next few years the world will experience the end of the end of another failed experiment of unlimited debt creation and fake fiat money. Economic history tells us that we need […]

Biden Approves First Taiwan Arms Sale Of Presidency, Ratcheting China Tensions Further

After a series of US-backed arms sales packages to Taiwan during Trump’s last year in office, severely ratcheting tensions to where they are now, President Biden’s administration on Wednesday approved its first arms sale to the island claimed by China.  Bloomberg is describing the potential $750 million deal as including 40 new M109 self-propelled howitzers, essentially a […]

Russia Developing New X-95 Air-Launched Long-Range Hypersonic Missile

Via SouthFront.org, Russia is working hard and developing the latest air-launched X-95 long-range hypersonic missile, Colonel-General Vladimir Zarudnitsky, head of the military academy of the General Staff, said in an article for the Military Thought magazine. Zarudnitsky said that he considered dominance in the aerospace sphere to be the most important condition for the successful […]

1619 Project, Touted As Racial Reckoning, Ignores Democratic Party Racism

Authored by Mark Hemmingway via RealClearInvestigations (emphasis ours), Democrats who advanced a bill in June to remove statues of white supremacists from the U.S. Capitol ignored a central fact about those figures: All of them had been icons of their party, from Andrew Jackson’s adamantly pro-slavery vice president, John C. Calhoun, to North Carolina Gov. […]

Goldman's Top 13 Charts For The Month Of August

The start of a new month means that Goldman’s flow traders need a new set of exciting ideas and trades to dangle before their clients, and that’s just what Goldman traders Scott Rubner, Matthew Fleury, Matthieu Martal , Kavita Vaja, and Jonas Bovbjerg are doing by putting together the following 13 charts that capture some […]

'A Variant Worse Than Delta': Fauci Dials Fear To 11 As Emerging 'Lambda' Strain Appears More Resistant To Vaccine

Dr. Anthony Fauci, the country’s top infectious disease specialist who funded controversial coronavirus research in Wuhan, China – and is now managing the coronavirus pandemic response for the US government, says the country could be “in trouble” unless everyone who hasn’t been vaccinated gets the jab. “What we’re seeing, because of this increase in transmissibility, […]

Baylor Prof Demands Prosecution Of Criticism Of Fauci And Other 'Scientists' As Hate Crime

Authored by Jonathan Turley, Physicist Richard P. Feynman once said “Religion is a culture of faith; science is a culture of doubt.”  Feynman’s statement captures how science depends upon constant questioning and challenging of assumptions. Yet, what is healthy debate to some is criminal dissent to others. Dr. Peter Hotez, a professor of pediatrics and molecular virology at Baylor […]

Thursday: Trade Deficit, Unemployment Claims

by Calculated Risk on 8/04/2021 09:00:00 PM Thursday: • At 8:30 AM ET, Trade Balance report for June from the Census Bureau. The consensus is the trade deficit to be $73.9 billion.  The U.S. trade deficit was at $71.2 Billion the previous month. • Also at 8:30 AM, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will […]

Inventory At US Car Dealers Falls To New All Time Low

The latest auto sales data revealed that in July, auto sales came in at a 14.75 million SAAR per Wards; while total unit sales in July declined by less than 1% sequentially to 1.288 million (from 1.295 million in June), when factoring in the seasonality adjustment, July US SAAR declined by about 4% sequentially (US […]

CDC Ensemble Model Ups Predicted Florida Weekly Deaths

Compare the CDC ensemble forecast released today, as compared to that generated the previous week and discussed in this post. Source: CDC, August 2 ensemble forecast. The August 2 forecasted Florida weekly death rate for 8/23 is about 690, up from a bit under 600 (I’m eyeballing here) indicated in the July 26 forecast shown […]

SUMMER SCHOOL 2: Index Funds & The Bet

Enlarge this image Suharu Ogawa for NPR Find all episodes of Planet Money Summer School here. Now that you know how the price of a stock is set, how do you decide which stocks to buy? That’s the question at the heart of a big bet… and today’s lesson. Investing is all about the trade-off […]

August 4th COVID-19: Second Worst Wave for Cases and Hospitalizations

by Calculated Risk on 8/04/2021 04:21:00 PM The 7-day average cases is the highest since February 13th.The 7-day average hospitalizations is the highest since March 3rd. This data is from the CDC. According to the CDC, on Vaccinations. Total doses administered: 348,102,478, as of a week ago 343,361,524. Average doses last week: 0.68 million per […]

2:00PM Water Cooler 8/4/2021

By Lambert Strether of Corrente. Bird Song of the Day The descending WOOO-wooo-woo-woo-woo is the Potoo. There is also the usual chorus of insects, along with a sharp cracking noise — snapping wood? Another insect? * * * #COVID19 At reader request, I’ve added this daily chart from 91-DIVOC. The data is the Johns Hopkins […]

Watch: Rand Paul Calls NIH Director “Stupid” After Call To Wear Masks At Home

Authored by Steve Watson via Summit News, Senator Rand Paul denounced “stupid” comments made on CNN by National Institutes of Health director Dr. Francis Collins, after the direct underling of Anthony Fauci declared that parents with children under the age of 12 should wear face masks INSIDE their own homes. Appearing on Fox News, an exasperated Paul […]

Hait, Suriname, and Yemen fact of the day

This one concerns the costs of starting a new business: Some of the least affordable countries lie in the Middle-East and Central America. Haiti and Suriname have startup costs that are 1,403% and 1,114% of monthly income, while Yemen has affordability rates of 1,070%. The piece considers other countries as well, via Mike Doherty.

Harrowing Audio From Hijacked Tanker: “Iranians Are Onboard With Ammunition, We Are Drifting!”

Israel’s national public broadcaster Kan News has obtained audio from Tuesday to Wednesday’s harrowing events aboard the Panama-flagged tanker Asphalt Princess, believed to have briefly been under Iranian military control and headed for the Islamic Republic’s territorial waters in the Persian Gulf. In the short audio recording released Wednesday crew of the distressed Asphalt Princess vessel are heard […]

The Treasury Moment Of Truth

With bonds yields gone wild, rates traders are again trying to justify how the world’s (formerly) most liquidity security is trading like a pennystock, with today’s sharp moves leaving many desks stunned and nursing substantial losses. So what’s going on? Well, as Jim Reid discusses in his latest Chart of the Day note titled “The […]

$1 Trillion Infrastructure Bill Hits Snag As Senators File Nearly 300 Amendments

An already-tenuous $1 trillion infrastructure spending package has been thrown into further disarray this week, after lawmakers filed nearly 300 amendments to the legislation, according to The Hill, which notes that in several instances “senators are holding their colleagues’ amendments hostage by objecting to voting on them unless their own priorities are also guaranteed a […]

China Doubles Down On Coal Despite Global Push To Go Green

Authored by Felicity Bradstock via OilPrice.com, Despite global expectations to move away from coal, demand in China is still strong, as rising global temperatures causing heat waves are driving up electricity demand and coal prices.  Thermal coal futures reached record highs in July as a heatwave in China sent electricity use soaring. In industrial areas of […]

Rabo: What The CDC Did Is Blatantly Unconstitutional

By Michael Every of Rabobank I See No Ships US equity markets are at fresh all-time highs; and US 10-year yields are plumbing 1.14% and trending lower. It doesn’t get any more plain-sailing than that – but it is also a harbinger of a storm on the horizon. If markets are saying we are heading […]

Texas Judge Blocks Governor's Order Halting Transport Of Covid-Positive Illegals

In a short-term victory for the Biden administration, a federal judge in Texas blocked an executive order which restricts the transport of infected illegal immigrants on Tuesday, suggesting that the order itself would have the effect of “exacerbating the spread of COVID-19.” U.S. District Judge Kathleen Cardone of El Paso agreed with the Justice Department, […]

AMC Foolishness Comes At A Dear Cost

Authored by Michael Lebowitz via RealInvestmentAdvice.com, “For one thing, in a world of free money, there’s almost no penalty for being a numbskull. And no reward for prudence. You run your business at a loss? No problem. Just borrow whatever you need.” – Bill Bonner In Undermining Capitalism with Unreal Values and Crass Distortion we discuss how […]

WTI Extends Losses Below $70 After Unexpected Crude Inventory Build

Oil prices are down again this morning as demand anxiety grew amid ‘Delta’-variant outbreaks in key consumer China, which countered improved sentiment in other risk assets. Additionally, for the second week in a row, the recovery in global air traffic has taken a step back, somewhat confirming the anxiety. After API reported a smaller than […]

Bonds Hammered As Unexpectedly Hawkish Clarida Sends Yields Surging

Update: with the 10Y now at 1.21%, we are entering VaR shock territory: * *  * It has been a rollercoaster day for bond traders this morning: after yields slid all morning on the continued short squeeze before tumbling to session lows after today’s dismal ADP jobs report and even the Treasury’s benign refunding statement […]

US Services Surveys Signal Stagflation As Prices Soar

After a mixed bag on the Manufacturing side, (ISM at 2021 lows; PMI at record high), the Services sector did the same… but mirrored. Markit’s Services sector survey slipped to its weakest since February (down from 64.6 to 59.9 in the final July print) ISM’s Services sector roared back from weakness in June to a […]

ISM® Services Index Increased to 64.1% in July

by Calculated Risk on 8/04/2021 10:04:00 AM (Posted with permission). The July ISM® Services index was at 64.1%, up from 60.1% last month. The employment index increased to 53.8%, from 49.3%. Note: Above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 contraction. From the Institute for Supply Management: July 2021 Services ISM® Report On Business® Economic activity in the […]

Updating The Spock Market

Stock Market’s Wild Mood Swings Can Be Explained by Mr. SpockThink of the “Star Trek” character and the calm punctuated by fits of euphoria and bouts of despair will be easier to understand. Bloomberg, June 22, 2020 The Spock Market Clients, colleagues, even family members keep asking the same question: “Why have stocks decoupled from […]

Gold & Crypto Spike As Dollar Dumps To 6-Week Lows

The dollar is extending losses that started with last week’s FOMC statement, as this morning’s ADP miss sparked selling (perhaps on the assumption that no taper is coming and more stimmies are all but guaranteed)… On the back of the dollar weakness, gold is spiking, back above $1835… Cryptos are also bid, helped by the […]

July Vehicles Sales Decreased to 14.75 Million SAAR

by Calculated Risk on 8/04/2021 08:40:00 AM The BEA released their estimate of light vehicle sales for July this morning. The BEA estimates sales of 14.75 million SAAR in July 2021 (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate), down 4.1% from the June sales rate, and up 0.3% from July 2020.  This was well below the consensus estimate […]

ADP: Private Employment increased 330,000 in July

by Calculated Risk on 8/04/2021 08:21:00 AM From ADP: Private sector employment increased by 330,000 jobs from June to July according to the July ADP® National Employment ReportTM. Broadly distributed to the public each month, free of charge, the ADP National Employment Report is produced by the ADP Research Institute® in collaboration with Moody’s Analytics. […]

Status Quo Bias

Here is the lead sentence from a CNN piece on vaccine boosters: Even though the biopharmaceutical company Pfizer has announced that it might be time to consider giving a third dose of its coronavirus vaccine to people, many doctors and public health officials argue that it’s more beneficial to get shots into the arms of […]

MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey

by Calculated Risk on 8/04/2021 07:00:00 AM From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications decreased 1.7 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending July 30, 2021. … The Refinance Index decreased 2 percent from […]

Links 8/4/2021

Five parrots separated at UK zoo after encouraging each other to swear at guests NZ Herald (David L) One of North Carolina’s oldest wild horses dies amid extreme heat Independent Bubonic plague in chipmunks forces closure of top Lake Tahoe sites Guardian (resilc) Creative Sunnyside Teen Makes Prom Dress out of Duct Tape, Wins $10,000 […]

Central Banks Must Address Pandemic Challenges

Yves here. Most Naked Capitalism readers hail from advanced economies, so we have only a dim and partial view of how developing economies, or alternatively, the Global South, are coping with Covid, and then mainly on disease outbreaks. These countries are also contending with economic damage, and many also get bad advice about what to […]

What should I ask David Salle?

Yes, the famous painter, I am slated to do a Conversation with him.  Here is the beginning of his Wikipedia page: David Salle (born September 28, 1952; last name pronounced “Sally”) is a Pictures Generation American painter, printmaker, photographer, and stage designer. Salle was born in Norman, Oklahoma, and lives and works in East Hampton, New York. He earned […]

What makes a podcast good or great?

A few people have asked me lately what makes for a good podcast.  Since my podcast is far from the most popular, and since most podcasts are not like mine, and do not (and should not) try to be like mine, perhaps I am not the right respondent.  Nonetheless I offered a simple formula: A […]

A New State Of Segregation: Vaccine Cards Are Just The Beginning

Authored by John W. Whitehead & Nisha Whitehead via The Rutherford Institute, “The things we were worried would happen are happening.” – Angus Johnston, professor at the City University of New York Imagine it: a national classification system that not only categorizes you according to your health status but also allows the government to sort […]