Finance
by Calculated Risk on 9/29/2023 02:52:00 PM From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 23 September U.S. hotel performance increased from the previous week, according to CoStar’s latest data through 23 September. 17-23 September 2023 (percentage change from comparable week…
Authored by Simon White, Bloomberg macro strategist,Rising term premia, which have recently turned positive again, has been driving the rise in yields and the bear steepening in the yield curve, with more likely to come.After spending most the past six years negative,…
By Lambert Strether of Corrente. Patient readers, this Water Cooler is a bit light; I had to do actual research on the ballot line material, so I couldn’t blast through linky goodness at my usual pace. –lambert Bird Song of the…
Goodbye, inflation. Hello, unsustainable debt.If you’ve spent any substantial amount of time engaged in discourse about the economy — and I, alas, have been at it for decades — you know that there’s always something to worry about.At the start of…
Authored by Emel Akan via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours)President Joe Biden delivered a speech about democracy on Sept. 28 in Arizona, a key battleground state for the 2024 election. He took aim at his predecessor, President Donald Trump, and expressed…
Authored by Mimi Nguyen Ly via The Epoch Times,California's fast-food workers will see a wage boost to $20 per hour due to a legislation signed into law by Gov. Gavin Newsom on Thursday.The wage increase will be effective from April 1,…
The future fate and leadership of PMC Wagner has become clearer on Friday, following the Aug. 23 death of Yevgeny Prigozhin and much of his senior leadership when their private plane went down outside Moscow while en route to St. Petersburg.…
Courtesy of Paweł Skrzypczyński: Note that y/y supercore inflation is higher in previous months, even if decelerating in August.
“Today, a column of tanks or a column of advancing troops can be discovered in three to five minutes and hit in another three minutes. The survivability on the move is no more than 10 minutes,” said Maj. Gen. Vadym Skibitsky,…
Authored by Michael Snyder via TheMostImportantNews.com,Our standard of living is being systematically destroyed, but for a lot of years many Americans didn’t fully understand what was taking place because it was happening so slowly. But now we have reached a stage…
1. On the need for German supply-side reforms. 2. BAP on Argentina. 3. LLMs are a new kind of operating system (duh). 4. A chain of comments on Amazon. 5. “Sweden is considering using its military to help police in the…
© 2023 CNBC LLC. All Rights Reserved. A Division of NBCUniversalData is a real-time snapshot *Data is delayed at least 15 minutes. Global Business and Financial News, Stock Quotes, and Market Data and Analysis.Market Data Terms of Use and DisclaimersData also…
Locals are telling Nikkei that Kuala Lumpur's semiconductor industry is bustling in a way it hasn't in 34 years.Speaking to Ng Kok Tiong, a senior vice president at Infineon, it's becoming clear that the semiconductor industry in Malaysia is attempting to ramp up.…
By Teeuwe Mevissen, Senior Macro Strategist at RabobankThe Federal Reserve’s ability to influence the economy depends on whether “people understand what we are saying,” according to Fed Chair Jerome Powell. So did market participants not understand what the Fed was saying for quite some…
There was good news on the crusade against inflation front on both side of the Atlantic.As we reported earlier, core PCE - the Fed's favorite inflation indicator - came in mostly in line and was still "sticky high", even as sequential…
United Auto Workers boss Shawn Fain announced Friday morning in a live-stream event that strikes against two of Detroit's automakers - General Motors and Ford - will be hit by another wave of strikes. The union boss said Chrysler-parent Stellantis had…
by Calculated Risk on 9/29/2023 10:57:00 AM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Fannie and Freddie: Single-Family Mortgage Delinquency Rate Declined, Multi-Family Increased in AugustBrief excerpt: I’ve argued that there would not be a huge wave of single-family foreclosures…
Tesla is once again being sued over discrimination, though this time not from one of its former employees.In keeping with what appears to be an ongoing trend of the government harassing Elon Musk, this week a Federal anti-discrimination agency called The…
By Catherine Yang of Epoch TimesChina Evergrande Group announced on Sept. 28 that its chairman and founder has been suspected of committing crimes, confirming reports that Hui Ka Yan was under police surveillance.It stated that "relevant authorities" notified the company that…
ShareShare Article via FacebookShare Article via TwitterShare Article via LinkedInShare Article via Email Stephanie Link, Hightower chief investment strategist, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the latest market trends, Nike quarterly earnings results, and more. 03:08 2 minutes ago
Update (1022ET):New York Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) announced a state emergency across New York City, Long Island, and the Hudson Valley following torrential rains and flash flooding. I am declaring a State of Emergency across New York City, Long Island, and the Hudson…
With PCE stickier than expected this morning (echoing similar trend sin CPI and PPI last week), expectations for UMich inflation outlooks was for a modest rise from the preliminary September prints, and they did with 1Y rising from 3.1 to 3.2…
Yves here. I’m skeptical of models with n = 3 (although the authors claim results would be pretty similar with n = 5. There are lots of other quibbles. Michael Pettis has explained why GDP in China isn’t a good measure…
ShareShare Article via FacebookShare Article via TwitterShare Article via LinkedInShare Article via Email Daniel Tarullo, Harvard Law School professor and former Federal Reserve Governor, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the Fed's inflation fight, the impact of high rates on regional banks,…
On Monday the US Supreme Court returns for a new term, where they'll have a laundry list of cases on their plate from the conservative 5th Circuit Court of Appeals, whose jurisdiction includes Louisiana, Mississippi and Texas.The 5th Circuit, populated with…
ShareShare Article via FacebookShare Article via TwitterShare Article via LinkedInShare Article via Email Barry Sternlicht, Starwood Capital chairman and CEO, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the state of the U.S. economy, the Fed's inflation fight, impact of high interest rates, recession…
by Calculated Risk on 9/29/2023 09:12:00 AM Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI report and housing from the PCE report this morning, both through July 2023.CPI Shelter was up 7.2% year-over-year in August, down…
ShareShare Article via FacebookShare Article via TwitterShare Article via LinkedInShare Article via Email CNBC's Rick Santelli and Steve Liesman join 'Squawk Box' to break down August's personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index. 06:40 9 minutes ago
ShareShare Article via FacebookShare Article via TwitterShare Article via LinkedInShare Article via Email Barry Sternlicht, Starwood Capital chairman and CEO, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the state of the U.S. economy, the Fed's inflation fight, impact of high interest rates, recession…
Millions of Americans owe money to doctors and hospitals, and that debt can affect their ability to get loans or even a job.People struggling with unpaid medical bills may soon have the debt erased from their credit reports.The Consumer Financial Protection…
© 2023 CNBC LLC. All Rights Reserved. A Division of NBCUniversalData is a real-time snapshot *Data is delayed at least 15 minutes. Global Business and Financial News, Stock Quotes, and Market Data and Analysis.Market Data Terms of Use and DisclaimersData also…
ShareShare Article via FacebookShare Article via TwitterShare Article via LinkedInShare Article via Email Ben Mezrich, ‘The Anti-Social Network’ author, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the meme stock mania, the GameStop phenomenon, how dumb money changed the game, and more. 06:52 6…
by Calculated Risk on 9/29/2023 08:30:00 AM The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for August: Personal income increased $87.6 billion (0.4 percent at a monthly rate) in August, according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic…
ShareShare Article via FacebookShare Article via TwitterShare Article via LinkedInShare Article via Email House Minority Leader Rep. Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the latest negotiations on Capitol Hill, whether an agreement can be reached to avert a government…
ShareShare Article via FacebookShare Article via TwitterShare Article via LinkedInShare Article via Email Oscar Munoz, co-chair of the National Association of Corporate Directors Blue Ribbon Commission and former United Airlines CEO and chairman, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the commission's new…
ShareShare Article via FacebookShare Article via TwitterShare Article via LinkedInShare Article via Email Katie Stockton, Fairlead Strategies founder and managing partner, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the latest technical analysis, what to make of the current market correction, rest of year…
ShareShare Article via FacebookShare Article via TwitterShare Article via LinkedInShare Article via Email Shehzad Qazi, China Beige Book International COO, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the state of U.S.-China relations, the risk of doing business in China, whether companies should divest,…
© 2023 CNBC LLC. All Rights Reserved. A Division of NBCUniversalData is a real-time snapshot *Data is delayed at least 15 minutes. Global Business and Financial News, Stock Quotes, and Market Data and Analysis.Market Data Terms of Use and DisclaimersData also…
ShareShare Article via FacebookShare Article via TwitterShare Article via LinkedInShare Article via Email Romina Boccia, Cato Institute director of budget and entitlement policy, and Michael Linden, Washington Center For Equitable Growth senior policy fellow and former OMB executive associate director in…
ShareShare Article via FacebookShare Article via TwitterShare Article via LinkedInShare Article via Email Subadra Rajappa, Societe Generale head of U.S. rates strategy, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss latest Treasury yield trajectory, the impact of higher rates on markets, where yields are…
Here is Ayn Rand on the antitrust laws: Under the Antitrust laws, a man becomes a criminal from the moment he goes into business, no matter what he does. For instance, if he charges prices which some bureaucrats judge as too…
IM Doc has been e-mailing with reports of what he sees as the increasing moral and literal breakdown of the practice of medicine in the US. The latter is the result of more and more resignations by seasoned and often highly…
The report calls into question key aspects of India’s digital ID program, including its heavily centralised nature, the reliability of its biometric identification systems and its vulnerability to data breaches. Relations between India and the so-called “Five Eye” nations (United States,…
Yves here. John Helmer argues that Russia’s lithium reserves not only are considerably larger than those of Australia, depicted at the lithium-richest country in some Western tallies, and with lower production costs than Australia, comparable to those of South American players.…
Here are the paper highlights: Women in same-sex couples commute longer to their workplace and work more hours than women in different-sex couples. Men in same-sex couples instead exhibit shorter commutes and work fewer hours than men in different-sex couples. These disparities are larger among married couples with children.…
Today we present a guest post written by Danilo Leiva-León (European Central Bank), Hervé Le Bihan (Bank of France) and Matías Pacce (Bank of Spain). The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the…
That is the first sentence of their abstract, here is the rest: To explain this puzzling phenomenon, we develop a theory linking internal migration, localized social institutions (e.g., family and friend networks), and voters’ preferences for social insurance. We start with…
In a previous post, I presented forecasts of recession based on probit models using term spread plus short rate, and term spread plus short rate, foreign term spread and debt service ratio. The latter only went of to 2024M03 since BIS…
by Calculated Risk on 9/28/2023 07:53:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.Friday: • At 8:30 AM ET, Personal Income and Outlays, August 2023. The consensus is for a 0.5% increase in personal income, and for…
Remember those warnings of an economic apocalypse in Seattle as the minimum wage was raised up to $15-16 per hour? Mark J. Perry was at the forefront of this (faulty) thesis. Having to teach Contemporary Public Affairs this semester, I was…
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