Finance
by Calculated Risk on 5/14/2023 11:27:00 AM This is something I check occasionally.The Department of Transportation (DOT) reported: Travel on all roads and streets changed by +0.6% (+1.7 billion vehicle miles) for March 2023 as compared with March 2022. Travel for…
The C3 Corvette was the car that when I was a kid, was the hottest attainable car. Not the 911 or E-Type Jag or any Ferrari, but a simple V8 manual car with that unmistakable shape, long hood, and distinctive rumble.…
Balloons detect mysterious sounds in the stratosphere below the human hearing limit. Scientists can’t explain. Business Insider Saturn reclaims ‘moon king’ title with 62 newfound satellites, bringing total to 145 Space Climate/Environment Fire Risk in Canada’s Oil Heartland Surges Over Hot…
By Darius Tahir, a correspondent based in Washington, D.C. who reports on health technology. Originally published at KFF Health News. What use could health care have for someone who makes things up, can’t keep a secret, doesn’t really know anything, and, when speaking,…
Despite French President Emmanuel Macron’s recent statements that Europe not be a US vassal, the EU continues to follow Washington down the path of confrontation with China. EU foreign ministers met on Friday and backed a more hardline position on China;…
Schooling may build human capital not only by teaching academic skills, but by expanding the capacity for cognition itself. We focus specifically on cognitive endurance: the ability to sustain effortful mental activity over a continuous stretch of time. As motivation, we…
That is the theme of my latest Bloomberg column, here is one bit: The point is not that LLMs won’t be used to create propaganda — they will — but that they offer users another option to filter it out. With…
A reader, critiquing the argument that the expanded Russian invasion of Ukraine could not explain accelerating inflation before February 2022, observes “The surge of inflation happened well before the war.” I don’t think this characterization is entirely accurate, but in any…
India’s state capacity recently has surpassed the global average. Pinch yourself! Here are various Berggruen governance indices. Here is the interactive site.
by Calculated Risk on 5/13/2023 02:11:00 PM At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:• Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-April• Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-April • House Price…
This week, we speak with Howard Lindzon, who is co-founder and managing partner of the early-stage seed investment fund Social Leverage. Lindzon also cofounded the social network Stocktwits, which pioneered the “cashtag” (e.g., $AAPL) and today has over 6 million monthly…
by Calculated Risk on 5/13/2023 08:11:00 AM The key reports this week are April Retail Sales, Housing Starts and Existing Home Sales.For manufacturing, April Industrial Production, and the May NY and Philly Fed manufacturing surveys will be released.Fed Chair Powell speaks…
What made these prehistoric ‘thunder beasts’ so big? National Geographic A Mutation Turned Ants Into Parasites in One Generation Quanta Climate El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Diagnostic Discussion National Weather Service Climate Prediction Service, NOAA. Synopsis: “A transition from ENSO-neutral is expected…
Yves here. I hope you are one of those readers who thinks it is not possible to overdo on cat-material-as-mental-health break. YouTube has finally gotten better algos and after nearly a year of suggesting survivalist videos, MSM news clips, and home…
Yves here. Reading about the struggles to control Afghanistan among the Taliban, IS, and Al Quaeda leads me to ask a dumb question: is Afghanistan properly a country? Just because it is a region of the world that has evaded sustained…
Fun is cheaper and that matters!: Recreation prices and hours worked have both fallen over the last century. We construct a macroeconomic model with general preferences that allows for trending recreation prices, wages, and work hours along a balanced-growth path. Estimating…
Susan Miskin retired from her teaching job in 2019 and didn’t think she’d ever pay off her student loans. Then, her only child stepped in.“I am going to get my mother’s loans forgiven,” read the email that landed in my inbox…
Reader JohnH provides a graph which seems to show lagging median wages. However, his graph is inexplicably normalized to 2020Q1, when the pandemic was underway. Here are the same series, log-normalized to NBER peak at 2019Q4. Figure 1: Average weekly real…
Macroeconomic cycles are much more self-reinforcing and correspondingly resistant to shocks and hence longer-lasting than what is commonly thought… The key idea is that economic developments feature strong endogenous propagation mechanisms which yield endogenous cyclical behavior ala limit cycles. And: What…
by Calculated Risk on 5/12/2023 09:04:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.This will be the last update for Cases data due to changes at the CDC.After the first few weeks, the pandemic low for…
Inversion on the second, as the first rises, as likelihood of June 1 default rises. Figure 1: 1 month Treasury – Fed funds spread (blue), and 3 month – 1 month Treasury spread (tan), both in %. Source: Treasury and Fed…
A reader complains that timely data on median real wages are not available on a timely basis (as compared to average real wages). What does this purportedly suppressed data indicate about the evolution of real wages? Figure 1: Year-on-year growth in…
by Calculated Risk on 5/12/2023 03:22:00 PM From BofA: Overall, incoming data this week pushed down our 1Q US GDP tracking estimate from 1.0% q/q saar to 0.9% q/q saar. [May 12th estimate]emphasis addedAnd from the Altanta Fed: GDPNowThe GDPNow model…
Here is the talk. I am waiting for someone to do some background “anthropological” research and field work, and create a fully simulated economy of say a village of five hundred people. (It is not difficult to have LLMs simulate human…
On Thursday, Brad Setser of the Council of Foreign Relations — esteemed by cognoscenti for his forensic analyses of balance of payments data — testified to a Senate committee about global tax avoidance by pharmaceutical companies. This issue may not have…
By Lambert Strether of Corrente. Bird Song of the Day Madagascar Nightjar, Jardin Botanique A, Ampijoroa Forestry Station, Mahajanga, Madagascar. * * * Politics “So many of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in fact a rational management…
ShareShare Article via FacebookShare Article via TwitterShare Article via LinkedInShare Article via Email House Financial Services Committee member Rep. Ritchie Torres (D-N.Y.) joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the latest in debt ceiling negotiations, and whether a deal can be reached before…
Yves here. ZOMG, I could kick myself for not noticing the key fact Wolf discusses here, that even at current interest rates, the US still has negative real interest rates, which is a monetary stimulus. However, we look to be getting…
ShareShare Article via FacebookShare Article via TwitterShare Article via LinkedInShare Article via Email RXR Realty CEO Scott Rechler joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the state of commercial real estate, and how existing commercial real estate loans could create problems for regional…
by Calculated Risk on 5/12/2023 09:24:00 AM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-AprilA brief excerpt: Yesterday, in Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-April…
© 2023 CNBC LLC. All Rights Reserved. A Division of NBCUniversalData is a real-time snapshot *Data is delayed at least 15 minutes. Global Business and Financial News, Stock Quotes, and Market Data and Analysis.Market Data Terms of Use and DisclaimersData also…
© 2023 CNBC LLC. All Rights Reserved. A Division of NBCUniversalData is a real-time snapshot *Data is delayed at least 15 minutes. Global Business and Financial News, Stock Quotes, and Market Data and Analysis.Market Data Terms of Use and DisclaimersData also…
Consumer experts are warning patients that some offerings charge much higher interest rates than regular credit cards.Patients are increasingly being offered special financing to cover medical treatments that, consumer advocates say, can turn out to be more costly than using conventional…
ShareShare Article via FacebookShare Article via TwitterShare Article via LinkedInShare Article via Email RXR Realty CEO Scott Rechler joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the state of commercial real estate, and how existing commercial real estate loans could create problems for regional…
ShareShare Article via FacebookShare Article via TwitterShare Article via LinkedInShare Article via Email Michael Fertik, founder of Heroic Ventures, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss how generative A.I. are turbocharging cybercrimes, how companies respond to the new cybersecurity threat, and more. 05:41…
I had a very fun conversation with my friend Roben Farzad about the business of culture, the culture of business, media and technology, markets and politics, Hollywood, the economy, investing and so much more. “I’m Roben Farzad, my guest this week…
ShareShare Article via FacebookShare Article via TwitterShare Article via LinkedInShare Article via Email Katie Stockton, Founder and Managing Partner of Fairlead Strategies, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the latest market trends, second-half outlook, and more. 04:17 4 minutes ago
ShareShare Article via FacebookShare Article via TwitterShare Article via LinkedInShare Article via Email Greg Branch, Veritas Financial Group managing partner, and Gunjan Banerji, markets reporter at The Wall Street Journal, join 'Squawk Box' to discuss comments from Fed Governor Michelle Bowman…
by Calculated Risk on 5/12/2023 08:21:00 AM From STR: STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 6 May U.S. hotel performance showed mixed results from the previous week but grew year over year, according to STR‘s latest data through 6 May.30…
ShareShare Article via FacebookShare Article via TwitterShare Article via LinkedInShare Article via Email House Financial Services Committee vice chair Rep. French Hill (R-Ark.) joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the latest on debt ceiling negotiations, and why he thinks Treasury Secretary Janet…
In March of 2022 a group of top economists released a paper analyzing the economic effects on Germany of a stop in energy imports from Russia (Bachmann et al. 2022). Using a large multi-sector mathematical model the authors concluded that if…
ShareShare Article via FacebookShare Article via TwitterShare Article via LinkedInShare Article via Email Punchbowl News founder Jake Sherman joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the latest on debt ceiling negotiations, and what the delay in talks means for a final bipartisan deal.…
ShareShare Article via FacebookShare Article via TwitterShare Article via LinkedInShare Article via Email Gene Munster, Deepwater Asset Management managing partner, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss Elon Musk's Twitter CEO announcement, what it means for Tesla and his other companies, and more.…
© 2023 CNBC LLC. All Rights Reserved. A Division of NBCUniversalData is a real-time snapshot *Data is delayed at least 15 minutes. Global Business and Financial News, Stock Quotes, and Market Data and Analysis.Market Data Terms of Use and DisclaimersData also…
‘No Mow May’ encourages homeowners to help bees by letting their lawns grow NBC. Let’s make it year-round! Call combinations and compositional processing in wild chimpanzees Nature. See also. PwC races to contain widening Australian tax leak scandal FT Climate Waller…
China continues to pull off big commercial and diplomatic coups in the US’ direct neighbourhood — this time with Ecuador, whose government is so closely aligned with the US that it recently asked Washington to directly intervene in its drug wars. …
Yves here. While there is a lot to recommend this article, particularly the discussion of the dangers of crypto, it bothers me when people who should know better go full-bore partisan. It’s bad enough that most medial outlets depict the failure…
Yves here. On the one hand, if you read the business press, you encounter enough discussion of the role of pharmacy benefit managers, or PBMs, to work out that they are very large and profitable and wield enormous influence in the…
Precious Price ditched her profitable business of renting home stays to tourists to combat the mounting housing crisis.“Making It Work” is a series is about small-business owners striving to endure hard times.When Precious Price bought her first home four years ago…
That is the topic of my latest Bloomberg column, here is one excerpt: Some countries can be expected to keep their relatively restrictionist immigration policies. But in these countries, the population will become smaller and smaller while taxes on the young…