Finance

Using a time regression discontinuity design, we estimate a 72.7 percent decrease in lower-level “quality of life” arrests, and a 69 percent decrease in non-index crime arrests in Minneapolis following…

If you win something at auction, even if you end up paying your full bid, you are typically quite happy, rather than just a smidgen happy. Then why didn’t you…

by Calculated Risk on 5/27/2022 04:35:00 PM From BofA: We are tracking 3.0% qoq saar for 2Q GDP. Next week's trade data will be a big swing factor. [May 27…

Inflation in the United States has probably peaked.I realize in saying that I risk coming across as the boy who cried “no wolf.” I called inflation wrong last year. Much…

by Calculated Risk on 5/27/2022 03:33:00 PM Freddie Mac reported that the Single-Family serious delinquency rate in April was 0.85%, down from 0.92% March. Freddie's rate is down year-over-year from…

By Lambert Strether of Corrente Bird Song of the Day This is Tanager week at Naked Capitalism. Sao Paolo, Brazil. * * * Politics “But what is government itself, but…

by Calculated Risk on 5/27/2022 12:34:00 PM Note: I like using Las Vegas as a measure of recovery for both leisure (visitors) and business (conventions).From the Las Vegas Visitor Authority:…

by Calculated Risk on 5/27/2022 10:22:00 AM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Update: Delinquencies, Foreclosures and REOA brief excerpt: Last year, I pointed out that the foreclosure…

Periods of flux are always fascinating. If you look in the right places, you can find evidence that the dominant trend is giving way, often before it gets reflected in…

by Calculated Risk on 5/27/2022 08:38:00 AM The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for April: Personal income increased $89.3 billion (0.4 percent) in April, according to estimates…

The great George Will hits another one out of the ballpark with some useful reminders: Government pratfalls such as the Disinformation Governance Board are doubly useful, as reminders of government’s…

Lambert and I, and many readers, agree that Ukraine has prompted the worst informational environment ever. We hope readers will collaborate in mitigating the fog of war — both real…

“If the US assumes that it has staunch allies [in Latin America], it is making a big mistake.” Readers of my May 13 piece, “Washington Faces Ultimate Snub, As Latin…

Yves here. Sadly, this model of more broadly shared prosperity might have been possible, but it seems like a pipe dream now given climate change, inflation, food scarcity, and more…

In April, Akureyri—the largest municipality in the country’s north, with a population of 19,000 people and some 2,000 to 3,000 cats—decided to ban their feline residents from night roaming outside.…

Yves here. This post makes an interesting observation: that demand for traded goods is unusually high, presumably due to catchup after Covid-induced supply chain interruptions and perhaps even some stockpiling.…

The real victims of global inflation; biodiversity; my robo-bio; and much more. 

Wishing those of you in the US a happy Memorial Day weekend! Hope you have something fun planned for this holiday, or alternatively, can get some R&R. We at Naked…

After the end of a devastating 26-year civil war in 2009, the island of 22mn had the makings of an Asian economic success story. Under governments run by the powerful…

by Calculated Risk on 5/26/2022 09:01:00 PM Friday: • At 8:30 AM ET: Personal Income and Outlays, April 2021. The consensus is for a 0.6% increase in personal income, and…

Future quantum internet applications will derive their power from the ability to share quantum information across the network. Quantum teleportation allows for the reliable transfer of quantum information between distant…

It’s hard to say which of the Republican responses to the latest mass shooting was most reprehensible. The reliably awful Senator Ted Cruz attracted considerable attention by insisting that the…

by Calculated Risk on 5/26/2022 04:11:00 PM From CoStar: STR: Weekly US Hotel Revenue per Available Room Reaches Highest Level Since July 2019 U.S. hotel performance increased from the previous…

By Lambert Strether of Corrente Bird Song of the Day This is Tanager week at Naked Capitalism. New York, United States. * * * Politics “But what is government itself,…

by Calculated Risk on 5/26/2022 01:12:00 PM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Realtor.com Reports Weekly Inventory Up 9% Year-over-yearExcerpt: Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the…

by Calculated Risk on 5/26/2022 12:42:00 PM From WardsAuto: May U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales to Fall from April, But Q2 Still Expected to Improve on Q1 (pay content).  Brief excerpt:"With expectations…

The U.S. is headed toward a recession with stubbornly high inflation, according to hedge-fund manager Kyle Bass. The chief investment officer of Hayman Capital Management said Thursday on CNBC's "…

by Calculated Risk on 5/26/2022 10:03:00 AM From the NAR: Pending Home Sales Descend 3.9% in April Pending home sales slipped in April, as contract activity decreased for the sixth…

Yves here. Khanna’s proposal for the left to challenge the right’s appropriation of the word freedom is overdue. Sadly, the fact that this is taking place only now reflects the…

The concept and governance of name, image, and likeness has always been highly politicized. But the deals themselves have largely stayed out of politics — until now. Dresser Winn, a…

by Calculated Risk on 5/26/2022 08:38:00 AM The DOL reported: In the week ending May 21, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 210,000, a decrease of 8,000…

by Calculated Risk on 5/26/2022 08:33:00 AM From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product (Second Estimate) and Corporate Profits (Preliminary), First Quarter 2022 Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an…

Has inflation peaked? When we look at the data, there are encouraging signs in various sectors. Three of the most signficant are Automobiles, Homes, and Labor/Wages: • Automobiles: The semiconductor shortage…

by Calculated Risk on 5/26/2022 07:00:00 AM This is a new monthly affordability index from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA).From the MBA: Mortgage Application Payments Jumped 8.8 Percent to $1,889…

When I was a wee young thing on Wall Street, I would hear a warning regularly from colleagues at Lazard, about “believing your own PR”. Interesting, this phrase was not…

Lambert and I, and many readers, agree that Ukraine has prompted the worst informational environment ever. We hope readers will collaborate in mitigating the fog of war — both real…

Yves here. Tom Neuberger is correct to point out that the current level of Team Us versus Team Them is “manufactured” but he is oddly loath to use the word…

Yves here. The $1 trillion estimate for ending EU dependence on Russian energy, which admittedly is to be spent over a period of years, nevertheless indicates that if the EU…

Those are the subject of my latest Bloomberg column, about 2x longer than usual, WaPo link here.  Excerpt, from the segment on arguments against: The case against visits by aliens:…

by Calculated Risk on 5/25/2022 09:01:00 PM Thursday: • At 8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.  The consensus is for 220 thousand up from…

by Calculated Risk on 5/25/2022 04:09:00 PM From the Philly Fed: The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia has released the coincident indexes for the 50 states for April 2022. Over…

by Calculated Risk on 5/25/2022 02:07:00 PM From the Fed: Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, May 3–4, 2022. Excerpt on the "Plans for Reducing the Size of the…

By Lambert Strether of Corrente Bird Song of the Day This is Tanager week at Naked Capitalism. From the Dominican Republic. “Sparrow ID Guides from Macaulay Library and Bird Academy”…

Figure 1: Mass shooting fatalities (blue, left scale), and wounded (brown, right scale). Gray shading denotes assault weapons ban; orange denotes Trump administration. Source: Mother Jones accessed 5/2/2022, author’s calculations.…

Words matter, in diplomacy and in law. Last week President Bush was asked if the United States had an obligation to defend Taiwan if it was attacked by China. He…

Let’s talk real estate. I am a magnet for residential real estate questions. Having more or less gotten the 2000s RRE mess right, I get regular questions about real estate…

Yves here. On the one hand, it’s a step in the right direction to see some policy thinkers grappling with the issue of aging and the rising need for long-term…

by Calculated Risk on 5/25/2022 09:51:00 AM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: The Household Mystery: Part IIBrief excerpt: Recently there have been two papers that shed some…