Finance
Unlike the conflict in Ukraine, where it is possible to tease some signal out of the noise, there’s a lot of unseemly Western schadenfraude at the prospect of the Chinese government paying for its dogged defense of Zero Covid….after having inconvenienced…
Yves here. Yours truly has always strongly preferred living in densely populated areas. Running errands on foot was a way to get some activity in as well as a bit of a mental health break via checking in on the state…
France is the only one of the 27 EU member states to have missed its objective for 2020, when renewable energy represented 19.1% of its consumption, below the 23% target. Sigh. Here is the full story, via Nicanor.
1. Annie Ernaux, The Years. The most famous book by the most recent Nobel Laureate in literature, and a good and stimulating read. It takes about twenty pages before you figure out what is going on, so stick with it. Nabeel…
by Calculated Risk on 11/29/2022 09:23:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.Wednesday: • At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.• At 8:15…
by Calculated Risk on 11/29/2022 06:34:00 PM Note: I like using Las Vegas as a measure of recovery for both leisure (visitors) and business (conventions).From the Las Vegas Visitor Authority: October 2022 Las Vegas Visitor Statistics With an improving conventions segment…
A Buddhist temple in central Thailand has been left without monks after all of its holy men failed drug tests and were defrocked, a local official said Tuesday. Four monks, including an abbot, at a temple in Phetchabun province’s Bung Sam…
Here’s a picture from late yesterday: Source: as of 28 Nov, militaryland.net, accessed 29 Nov 2022. See latest report from ISW for context.
Reader JohnH* quotes Politico EU officials attack Joe Biden over sky-high gas prices, weapons sales and trade as Vladimir Putin’s war threatens to destroy Western unity.… “The fact is, if you look at it soberly, the country that is most profiting…
Overzealously fighting inflation to help lower-income workers might actually do the opposite.The central economic debate in the United States right now is how aggressive the Federal Reserve should be in its effort to reduce inflation. Few economists are arguing against the…
By Lambert Strether of Corrente Bird Song of the Day Handsome Flycatcher, Megantoni Camp 3, Tinkanari, Cuzco, Peru. Today, the flycatcher is handsome. Yesterday, the flycatcher was ornate! * * * Politics “But what is government itself, but the greatest of…
Marginal Revolution University has partnered with a recent Emergent Ventures grantee to build ‘Duolingo for economics’. They’re building a mobile app to help you learn and think about economics more effectively (for free), starting with courses on the fundamentals. You can…
by Calculated Risk on 11/29/2022 01:12:00 PM High-Cost Areas increase to $1,089,300.Here is the official announcement from the FHFA: FHFA Announces Conforming Loan Limit Values for 2023 The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) today announced the conforming loan limit values (CLLs)…
Remarks by a reader indicate it’s worthwhile to recap this topic. Consider: If markets are informationally efficient, corporate news events such as earnings announcements should be immediately reflected in stock prices. Now, actually checking stock-price reactions to corporate events is also…
The transcript from this week’s, MiB: NAME, TITLE, is below. You can stream and download our full conversation, including the podcast extras on iTunes, Spotify, Stitcher, Google, Bloomberg, and Acast. All of our earlier podcasts on your favorite pod hosts can…
Yves here. In a tacit admission of failure, the Gates Foundation is rebranding its Alliance for a Green Revolution in Africa but is not changing its approach all that much. By Timothy A. Wise, Senior Advisor at the Institute for Agriculture…
by Calculated Risk on 11/29/2022 09:51:00 AM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Case-Shiller: National House Price Index "Continued to Decline" to 10.6% year-over-year increase in SeptemberExcerpt: Both the Case-Shiller House Price Index (HPI) and the Federal Housing Finance…
ShareShare Article via FacebookShare Article via TwitterShare Article via LinkedInShare Article via EmailPresident Joe Biden is urging members of Congress to take action to prevent a "potentially crippling" national rail shutdown. CNBC's Kayla Tausche joins 'Squawk Box' to report.02:415 hours ago
by Calculated Risk on 11/29/2022 09:12:00 AM S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for September ("September" is a 3-month average of July, August and September closing prices).This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, two composite indices (for 10 cities…
ShareShare Article via FacebookShare Article via TwitterShare Article via LinkedInShare Article via Email Sarat Sethi, DCLA managing partner and portfolio manager, joins CNBC's 'Squawk Box' to break down potential market strategies and stocks to watch ahead of the open. Sethi also…
🔥‘Siberian unicorn’ once roamed among humans, surviving in Eastern Europe and western Asia until at least 39,000 years ago, around the same time of Neanderthals and early modern humans. pic.twitter.com/SUSJJiyE5A — Nature Is Lit (@NatureIs_Lit) November 28, 2022 Hobo signs and…
When two of the largest countries on the American continent, Brazil and Argentina, agree to establish a bilateral payment system in local currencies, it is worth taking note. As NC readers are well aware (in large part thanks to Michael Hudson’s…
Yves here. It may seem an exercise in counting chickens before they are hatched for Russian commentators to be drawing maps about what Ukraine will look like after the winter operations and possible further mopping up. I had a discussion with…
Yves here. An informative discussion with Cristina Caffarra, a top legal expert who has participated not only in the development of new theories in Europe and the US for antitrust, but also advised on some key cases. She discusses the difficulty…
Today, we are pleased to present a guest contribution by Steven Kamin (AEI), formerly Director of the Division of International Finance at the Federal Reserve Board. The views presented represent those of the authors, and not necessarily those of the institutions the authors…
“Get Down and Shruti” (how many of you get the musical reference?). Here is an excerpt from the first post, “Why everyone should pay more attention to India”: Globally, one in five people below 25 is from India. 47% of Indians,…
We quantify firms’ compliance costs of regulation from 2002 to 2014 in terms of their labor input expenditure to comply with government rules, a primary component of regulatory compliance spending for large portions of the U.S. economy. Detailed establishment-level occupation data,…
by Calculated Risk on 11/28/2022 08:47:00 PM From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Reinforcing The Range as Trading Slowly ResumesBonds were effectively closed for a 4-day weekend starting with Thanksgiving last Thursday. True, Friday was technically open for half a…
Do you remember when Covid was going to establish China as the world’s dominant power? As late as mid-2021, my inbox was full of assertions that China’s apparent success in containing the coronavirus showed the superiority of the Chinese system over…
There is to date little or no evidence of beneficial effects of longer parental leave (or fathers’ quotas) on maternal participation and earnings. In most cases longer leave delays mothers’ return to work, without long-lasting consequences on their careers. More generous…
By Lambert Strether of Corrente Patient readers, you can start reading now, there’s more than enough! I really outdid myself collecting material over what was for me a five-day weekend. So, more to come! –lambert UPDATE All done! Bird Song of…
In 2019, Fed economist David Miller undertook a comprehensive assessment of term spread predictive power for recessions (There is No Single Best Predictor of Recessions). For the 1984-2018 period, he found the following: Figure 2: AUROC Sample 1984 – 2018 from…
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia The Coincident State Indexes for October 2022 snuck out last week right before Thanksgiving. You might have missed it during the holiday week, but it’s worth reviewing. The specifics are noteworthy: -Over the past month,…
by Calculated Risk on 11/28/2022 11:10:00 AM Today I’m announcing the CalculatedRisk Newsletter subscriber chat.This is a conversation space in the Substack app that is exclusively for CalculatedRisk Newsletter subscribers — kind of like a group chat or live hangout. I’ll…
5 years ago, a dear friend unexpectedly passed away. Once his crew recovered from our initial shock, we decided to establish the Richard Yamarone Memorial Scholarship in Economics at Brooklyn College.* The driving force behind the scholarship was TBP Invictus. Art…
by Calculated Risk on 11/28/2022 08:57:00 AM Active inventory decreased slightly. Here are the same week inventory changes for the last four years (usually inventory declines seasonally through the Winter):2022: -4.8K (smaller than usual decrease in inventory)2021: -9.9K2020: -15.1K2019: -18.4KAltos reports…
ShareShare Article via FacebookShare Article via TwitterShare Article via LinkedInShare Article via Email Carol Schleif, CIO at BMO Family Office, and Ross Mayfield, investment strategy analyst at Baird, join CNBC's 'Squawk Box' to discuss the health of the U.S. consumer this…
ShareShare Article via FacebookShare Article via TwitterShare Article via LinkedInShare Article via Email Kraig Foreman, North America president of e-commerce at DHL Supply Chain, joins CNBC's 'Squawk Box' to discuss the health of the U.S. supply chain this holiday shopping season.…
By Conor Gallagher European leaders have finally woken up to the fact that Washington is benefitting at their expense with the US/NATO proxy war against Russia in Ukraine. Despite their economies being harmed by Washington, the EU continues to take a…
ShareShare Article via FacebookShare Article via TwitterShare Article via LinkedInShare Article via Email CNBC's Steve Liesman joins 'Squawk Box' to kick off a three-part series covering the country's antiquated process for bringing skilled labor into the U.S., which is driving the…
Students in Beijiing protest via equations. Any mathematicians care to guess why? Answer in the comments. A hint. I would have gone with Mv=PY. Hat tip: Nathan Law.
Poe vs. Property: A detective story of shifting rationalizations. Cory Doctorow This is the first house 3D-printed from bio-based materials ZME Science Two people left dangling from power lines are rescued after their small plane crashed into a tower in Maryland:…
By Lucian Cernat, the Head of Global Regulatory Cooperation and International Procurement Negotiations in DG TRADE. Until 2020, he was the Chief Trade Economist of the European Commission. Originally published at VoxEU. Numerous analysts have suggested that globalisation has permanently slowed or…
Below we are reproducing a post from Ukraine Telegram, along with an assessment from Colonel Douglas Macgregor. A long-standing military colleague sent the material to Macgregor, who deems it to be authentic. One thing that is striking about the text of…
Yves here. We trust you’ll enjoy this wide-ranging but compact interview with Michael Hudson on Lebanon’s Almayadeen TV. The topics include Europe’s de-industrialization, the Fed fighting the wrong war and hurting innocent bystanders, the rise of new power blocs, and debt.…
From the preview I feared it might be unwatchable, but it far exceeded expectations. This story of Spielberg’s own childhood life (a risky premise for a sentimentalist!) is one of the best Spielberg movies, one of the best movies about America…
From CNN: China’s major stock indices and its currency have opened sharply lower Monday, as widespread protests against the country’s stringent Covid-19 restrictions over the weekend roiled investor sentiment. Here are data over the past week for China and HK stock…
We compare the online reviews of 221 “Questionable” Illinois and Indiana physicians with multiple paid medical malpractice claims and disciplinary sanctions with matched control physicians with clean records. Across five prominent online rating services, we find small, mostly insignificant differences in…
From a new book from Cambridge: In this newly published volume, Yin-Wong Cheung “discusses the global role of the RMB. After recapitulating its economic and trade growth experiences, we recount China’s evolving exchange rate policy in the post-reform era, review the…
(You may think this caricature is goofy, but I find it generous in its depiction) I recently sat down to chat with Stephen Clapham, who hosts the Behind the Balance Sheet podcast. Audio is at Spotify and iTunes. Normally during podcasts,…