Finance
by Calculated Risk on 11/27/2022 10:20:00 AM Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. Here is their weekly report released today from Chief Economist Danielle Hale: Weekly Housing Trends View — Data Week Ending Nov 19, 2022.…
By Conor Gallagher Japan and South Korea are facing difficult decisions over Washington’s intensifying conflict with Beijing. The US is working to get both countries to join efforts to economically isolate and militarily contain China. Seoul and Tokyo need look no…
After Operation Warp Speed was disbanded by the Biden administration, vaccine development slowed from warp speed to impulse power. The rest of the world now has some innovative vaccines not yet available in the United States. China, for example, has an…
Links 11/26/2022 The Mystery of the Blue Whale Songs Nautilus World map according to fish pic.twitter.com/4Gd8A0q2RF — Terrible Maps (@TerribleMaps) November 26, 2022 A bot that watched 70,000 hours of Minecraft could unlock AI’s next big thing MIT Technology Review A…
By Haley Zaremba, a writer and journalist based in Mexico City. Originally published at Oilprice.com. Why isn’t wind power going gangbusters? In Europe, the energy crisis is causing solar power growth to break record after record. In the United States, the…
I am listing only new releases: Bach, Johann Sebastian, complete Sonatas and Partitas for violin, Fabio Biondi. Perhaps the only recording I like as much as the older (stereo) Milstein performance? Bach, Johann Sebastian, The Art of Life, Daniil Trifonov, The…
And that is bad! (Never reason from an income inequality decline.) Despite a recent rebound, equity prices are still down considerably from their peaks, and of course that in percentage terms is a larger loss for wealthier people. Here is one…
Yes the expenditures had prior approval, but that does not always lead to productive results: Nine months ago, in the wake of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Olaf Scholz declared a Zeitenwende — a turning point — for Germany’s military and…
by Calculated Risk on 11/26/2022 02:11:00 PM At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: • New Home Sales Increased in October; Completed Inventory Increased With rising cancellations, the Census Bureau overestimates sales• Lawler: Likely "Dramatic shift" in Household Formation…
This week, we speak with Boaz Weinstein, the chief investment officer of Saba Capital Management LP, which Weinstein founded in 2009 as a lift-out of Saba Principal Strategies. Prior to founding Saba, Boaz Weinstein was co-head of global credit trading at…
by Calculated Risk on 11/26/2022 08:11:00 AM The key report this week is the November employment report on Friday.Other key indicators include the 2nd estimate of Q3 GDP, the September Case-Shiller and FHFA house price indexes, October Personal Income & Outlays…
By Jake Johnson. Originally published at Common Dreams. Thousands of Amazon workers in more than 40 countries are planning to mark Black Friday by walking off the job and protesting the corporate behemoth’s abuse of employees and the climate, as well…
This entry was posted in Guest Post, Links on November 26, 2022 by Conor Gallagher.
By Tsvetana Paraskova, a writer for Oilprice.com with over a decade of experience writing for news outlets such as iNVEZZ and SeeNews. Originally published at Oilprice.com. High prices seem to have started to weigh on diesel demand in the United States, where…
Perhaps much larger birth subsidies would help to raise birth rates. But the world with much larger birth subsidies might also coincide with a world where the social pressures to have (more) children are higher than under the status quo. Many…
If the UK continues with the same level of growth it has seen for the last decade,” writes Sam Ashworth-Hayes, “Poland will be richer than Britain in about 12 years’ time”: It sounds like an absurd idea that in 2040 we might see complaints…
Your humble blogger is trying to dig herself out from under a pile of overdue estate administrativa, hence my temporary absence. But guurst sent along this sighting about Poland’s spending plans, which look destined to drive Poland into even more severe…
by Calculated Risk on 11/25/2022 08:08:00 PM NOTE: COVID stats are updated on Fridays.On COVID (focus on hospitalizations and deaths). Data has switched to weekly.Weekly deaths bottomed in July 2021 at 1,666. COVID Metrics NowWeekAgoGoal New Cases per Week2🚩305,082281,691≤35,0001 Hospitalized221,29321,578≤3,0001 Deaths…
It’s Black Friday and you know what that means: Lots of promotional sales and lots of holiday retail spending forecasts. You can rely on the latter being ubiquitous and wrong; some by a little, most by a lot. At least, that’s…
Adrián Lucardi writes to me, addressing yesterday’s question of why more currencies are not nominally stronger than the USD: Short answer: costly to implement; few direct (political or macroeconomic) benefits if things go well; but politically costly if things turn sour. Long…
by Calculated Risk on 11/25/2022 10:38:00 AM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Case-Shiller, FHFA House Prices Indexes and Conforming Loan Limits will be released on TuesdayBrief excerpt: Last week, the National Association of Realtors® (NAR) reported that median…
ShareShare Article via FacebookShare Article via TwitterShare Article via LinkedInShare Article via Email Aoifinn Devitt, CIO at Moneta, joins CNBC's 'Squawk Box' to discuss her market outlook and potential investment opportunities ahead of the open on Friday. 03:46 7 minutes ago
ShareShare Article via FacebookShare Article via TwitterShare Article via LinkedInShare Article via Email Terry Lundgren, TJL Advisors CEO and former Macy’s CEO, joins CNBC's 'Squawk Box' to discuss the state of the U.S. consumer on Black Friday. Lundgren explains why he…
ShareShare Article via FacebookShare Article via TwitterShare Article via LinkedInShare Article via Email Dan Flax, Neuberger Berman senior research analyst, joins CNBC's 'Squawk Box' with his outlook for the technology sector in 2023. 03:15 10 minutes ago
ShareShare Article via FacebookShare Article via TwitterShare Article via LinkedInShare Article via Email Consumers looking for the latest version of Apple's iPhone this holiday season may be out of luck. CNBC's Seema Mody joins 'Squawk Box' to break down the details.…
by Calculated Risk on 11/25/2022 09:15:00 AM From the Philly Fed: The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia has released the coincident indexes for the 50 states for October 2022. Over the past three months, the indexes increased in 36 states, decreased…
Nat Friedman is seeking a full-time solo technical leader to go on a modern day Indiana Jones-style treasure hunt. You will be responsible for starting and running a crowdsourced effort to crack an archaeological puzzle of great historical significance. Success would be…
World’s heaviest flying bird may be self-medicating on plants used in traditional medicine Frontiers Science News. Humans aren’t the only species that self-medicates! The Invasion of the Super Insects Nautilus The possible worlds of Saul Kripke The Institute of Art and…
Credit Suisse may have taken an “important step” in its turnaround process, as its unfortunately named chairman, Alex Lehmann, said this week. But it is also suffering a gathering run on deposits and losing clients to its biggest rival. For the…
Card balances have been rising rapidly. But there are ways to navigate the gift-giving season without taking on a lot of new debt.Americans are heading into the holiday shopping season with rapidly increasing levels of credit card debt.Credit card balances, which…
Rob asks: I would love to see you write on how AI changes the value of language learning, at the margin. Two thoughts: The value of learning languages in order to “get” a culture more deeply probably doesn’t change much. On…
No. Figure 1: Forecasted probability of recession from 10yr-3mo term spread (blue), from 10yr-2yr term spread (tan), 10yr-3mo term spread augmented by FCI, foreign term spread (green). All models estimated over 1986M01-2022M11. NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Lilac shading…
Yesterday’s Bloomberg article “Fed Staff Sees a 50-50 Chance of Recession” spurred me to examine the implications of the latest readings on term spreads. Figure 1 depicts the recession probabilities estimated using a simple probit model based on the 10yr-3mo and…
The currencies from Kuwait and Bahrain and Grand Cayman are more valuable than the U.S. dollar, the British pound, and the euro usually if not always as of late. Why aren’t more currencies greater in nominal value? True, nominal variables should…
by Calculated Risk on 11/24/2022 11:28:00 AM Here are five economic reasons to be thankful this Thanksgiving. (Hat Tip to Neil Irwin who started doing this years ago)1) The Unemployment Rate is Near 50 Year LowThe unemployment rate was at 3.7%…
1. Does quantum entanglement enable mechanisms that guarantee PD cooperation? 2. Building the Empire State Building. 3. Enter Inspector Gadget, and Wilkie Collins. 4. FT dialogue with Brad DeLong. 5. The other AEA — Actors’ Equity Association — lifted mask mandates…
How to Talk to a Fox News ViewerThose on the Left need to stop ignoring the science of Influence & PersuasionTBP, November 22, 2018 As noted in 2018, I enjoyed playing with this concept so much that I created several versions…
Have you noticed that Brussel sprouts are enjoying a renaissance? Once scorned they are now showing up at top-notch restaurants. NPR: Foods go in and out of style. Few of them, though, have gone through as dramatic a renaissance in their…
Readers, I hope you are all having an excellent Thanksgiving. Purely for due diligence, I remind you to encourage kindness and helpfulness wherever you are. –lambert Welcome to the Tiny Town Where Half Your Neighbors Are Polar Bears WSJ Why Wild…
Spain already witnessed one of the most spectacular housing bubbles and busts so far this century. As pressures in the mortgage market begin to grow, the government and banks are desperately trying to avoid a rerun. Following weeks of negotiations with…
Lambert here: More trouble…. By Wolf Richter, editor of Wolf Street. Originally published at Wolf Street. Sales of new single-family houses have been zigzagging along low levels for months. In October, they rose 7.5% from September, after having plunged 11% in…
My morning train WFH reads: • 10 Things for Crypto People to Say at Thanksgiving This Year: It’s going to be an awkward conversation. Use these phrases to preserve your reputation. (Bloomberg) • 9 tips to debunk false claims made by…
Happy Thanksgiving! The painter’s name is…George Mason, further explanation here.
Dear patient readers, Starting today and through next Monday, we will have three regular posts a day. I believe Lambert will do a Water Cooler on Friday but that’s up to him. To give our diligent moderation staff a break, moderation…
by Calculated Risk on 11/23/2022 06:12:00 PM Freddie Mac reported that the Single-Family serious delinquency rate in October was 0.66%, down from 0.67% September. Freddie's rate is down year-over-year from 1.32% in October 2021.Freddie's serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010…
A long running debate between reader JohnH and just about anybody else on this website involves UK 2015 (1) inflation, and (2) real wages, with JohnH quoting from various documents. I thought it useful to GET THE DATA MYSELF to resolve…
Lord Triesman: I will tell the noble Baroness, Lady Smith, that at Cambridge University, after the faculty of economics was redecorated, I was inveigled into taking part in a debate as to the order in which the portraits of its Nobel…
By Lambert Strether of Corrente Bird Song of the Day Common Nightingale, Taliouline, Morocco. 28 minutes! * * * Politics “But what is government itself, but the greatest of all reflections on human nature?” –James Madison, Federalist 51 “Here’s food for…
by Calculated Risk on 11/23/2022 12:49:00 PM From BofA: On net, today's data pushed up our 4Q US GDP tracking from 1.4% q/q saar to 1.8% q/q saar and left our 3Q US GDP tracking unchanged at 3.0% q/q saar. [Nov…
by Calculated Risk on 11/23/2022 10:39:00 AM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: New Home Sales Increased in October; Completed Inventory IncreasedBrief excerpt: The next graph shows the months of supply by stage of construction. “Months of supply” is…