Finance
by Calculated Risk on 11/23/2022 10:08:00 AM The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in October were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 632 thousand.The previous two months were revised down. Sales of new single‐family houses in October 2022…
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Due to the fact that your humble blogger is not feeling so hot, forgive me for giving you a thin treatment of the wobbles and likely-looking collapse of a key crypto concern, Genesis. However, two excellent tweetstorms cover most of the…
by Calculated Risk on 11/23/2022 08:35:00 AM The DOL reported: In the week ending November 19, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 240,000, an increase of 17,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was…
Barry Ritholtz, Ritholtz Wealth Management Chairman & CIO and “Masters in Business” Bloomberg Radio & Podcast Host, discusses crypto contagion and the volatile price swings in bitcoin. Yield Hogs Are Always Problematic Source: Bloomberg
ShareShare Article via FacebookShare Article via TwitterShare Article via LinkedInShare Article via Email Dana Telsey, Telsey Advisory Group CEO, and Matt Shay, National Retail Federation CEO, join CNBC's 'Squawk Box' to discuss retail and what to expect for Black Friday. 03:42…
Diplomacy is a 7-player game in which players must persuade, cajole, coordinate, strategize, bluff and lie to one another in order to take over the world. For the first time, an AI has achieved success in Diplomacy: Over 40 Diplomacy games…
British man catches absolutely massive goldfish Boing Boing (resilc) Warmest Tent on Earth – Pitching in the Siberian Arctic Winter – Ненецкая палатка чум YouTube (resilc) Nomadic lifestyle of the northern mountains of Iran in Winter YouTube (resilc). ZOMG, the father…
By KLG, who has held research and academic positions in three US medical schools since 1995 and is currently Professor of Biochemistry and Associate Dean. He has performed and directed research on protein structure, function, and evolution; cell adhesion and motility;…
Yves here. One hates to be the voice of sobriety, but it is clear that there isn’t anything dimly approaching the necessary collective will to take on climate change. Unless you are able to go to a very low carbon footprint,…
Yves here. ZOMG, this is delicious. Duda spoke for over seven minutes to comedians pretending to be Macron. Duda made some admissions that aren’t going over so well. You would think after Macron was naughty and had some reporters in the…
Behind the links are sometimes but not always my longer reviews. The list is (mostly) in the order I read them. Here goes: Markus Friedrich, The Jesuits: A History. Barbara Bloemink, Florine Stettheimer: A Biography. Anna Keay, The Restless Republic: Britain…
by Calculated Risk on 11/22/2022 08:50:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.Wednesday: • At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.• At 8:30…
Regarding the view the US economy was in recession earlier this year (e.g., this observer less than a month ago), the CFNAI has the following takes: The three month moving average of the CFNAI dropped below 0 (i.e., dropped below trend…
The current GDP deflator should be 18% higher (in log terms), or 154.2 instead of 128.2. To see this, consider the tautology: MV ≡ PQ Where M is money, V is velocity, P is price level, Q is economic activity. Assume V’ is constant; then: MV’ = PQ In…
by Calculated Risk on 11/22/2022 02:58:00 PM From WardsAuto: November U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales to Slow from Prior Month; Still Point to Stronger Q4 (pay content). Brief excerpt:Although heavily laden with pickups, inventory will rise again in November, lifting the prospects that…
We introduce a model of the admissions process based upon standard agency theory and explore its implications with economics PhD admissions data from 2013-2019. We show that a subjective score that aggregates subjective ratings and recommendation letter features plays a more…
By Lambert Strether of Corrente Bird Song of the Day Thrush Nightingale, Moscow, Russia. No, that’s not an editorial comment. Very pretty indeed! * * * Politics “But what is government itself, but the greatest of all reflections on human nature?”…
by Calculated Risk on 11/22/2022 12:43:00 PM From Black Knight: Black Knight’s First Look: Prepayment Activity Hit Record Low in October as Rates Topped 7%; Mortgage Delinquencies Up 4.5% in First Signs of Hurricane Ian Impact • Prepayments fell 16.5% to…
Corporate governance experts say the electric-car maker’s directors may need to rein in the chief executive, with whom many have personal ties.Since Elon Musk took over Twitter last month, his stewardship of the social network has been marked by turmoil, intrigue…
Lambert here: Wait, what? That’s the privatized part of Medicare! By Fred Schulte, an investigative reporter, who has worked at The Baltimore Sun, the South Florida Sun Sentinel, and the Center for Public Integrity, and Holly Hacker, KHN Data Editor, previously…
by Calculated Risk on 11/22/2022 09:17:00 AM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Lawler: Likely "Dramatic shift" in Household Formation has "Major implications" for 2023A brief excerpt: Below is a chart showing the CPS/ASEC estimates of the % of…
The transcript from this week’s, MiB: Marcus Shaw, CEO of AltFinance, is below. You can stream and download our full conversation, including the podcast extras on iTunes, Spotify, Stitcher, Google, YouTube, and Bloomberg. All of our earlier podcasts on your favorite…
How Wild Turkeys Find Love New York Times The Return of the Wild Turkey New Yorker (resilc) Mapping Lyme disease across western North America PhysOrg (David L) Expert Proposes a Method For Telling if We All Live in a Computer Program…
As life gets prohibitively expensive for many people living in the US (and other rich countries), relatively cheaper countries like Mexico are becoming increasingly attractive. But for local people the costs are growing. Between January and September of 2022, Mexico issued…
Since FTX is due to lodge a big filing in bankruptcy court today, which among other things is expected to provide more detail on the unwind, it seems prudent to wait for more scandalous revelations…save for making sure a couple of…
Yves here. It’s been a long-standing disgrace that college and university tuitions have exploded, rising far faster than inflation, and have gone almost entirely into adminisphere bloat and gold-plated facilities. Aside from top professors (who typically make more consulting than working…
Except that the claim generates virtually no controversy. I argue that moral comparisons are possible only within the “cone” of an episode of (potentially) sustainable economic growth. So you can compare a growth-maximizing policy to a non-growth-maximizing policy, and judge the…
An MR reader request: You are appointed to the 24 DeSantis cabinet with the task of “fixing the administrative state”. Republicans have a very large Congressional majority. What do you try to do? I will outsource this one to James Broughel,…
by Calculated Risk on 11/21/2022 08:41:00 PM From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Little-Changed to Start Holiday-Shortened WeekMortgage rates made their biggest recent move (and their biggest single day move ever) 2 Thursday's ago after a key report…
by Calculated Risk on 11/21/2022 04:12:00 PM Note: This is as of October 31st.From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Increases Slightly to 0.70% in October The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) monthly Loan Monitoring Survey revealed that the total…
“Twitter? Twitter? Twitter? Twitter?” “Um, Twitter’s sick. My best friend’s sister’s boyfriend’s brother’s girlfriend heard from this guy who knows this kid who’s going with the girl who saw Twitter pass out at 31 Flavors last night. I guess it’s pretty…
By Lambert Strether of Corrente Patient readers, I must finish up a post on Twitter. Talk amongst yourselves! This is an open thread. –lambert * * * Contact information for plants: Readers, feel free to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether…
Here is one answer (to a slightly different question) from Reddit: Asia Minor/Anatolia might be the region which have seen most empires. For example: Akkadians, Hittites, Persians, Alexander’s Empire, Seleucids, Roman Empire, Parthians, Byzantine Empire, Sassanids, Arabians, Seljuks, Mongols and Ottomans.…
by Calculated Risk on 11/21/2022 12:43:00 PM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Final Look at Local Housing Markets in OctoberA brief excerpt: The big story for October existing home sales was the sharp year-over-year (YoY) decline in sales.…
You may have missed this wonderful Josh Zumbrun column in the Wall Street Journal last week: “Inflation and Unemployment Both Make You Miserable, but Maybe Not Equally.” It’s one of those things that are so obvious no one ever stops to…
by Calculated Risk on 11/21/2022 08:57:00 AM Active inventory decreased slightly. Here are the same week inventory changes for the last four years (usually inventory declines seasonally through the Winter):2022: -3.0K (smaller than usual decrease in inventory)2021: -8.9K2020: -10.5K2019: -14.7KAltos reports…
ShareShare Article via FacebookShare Article via TwitterShare Article via LinkedInShare Article via Email Jeffrey Sonnenfeld, senior associate dean for leadership studies at the Yale School of Management, and James Stewart, columnist at The New York Times and author of 'Disney War,'…
Here’s my high-level explanation of the FTX crash. Imagine that I own a house and I create a million coins representing the value of the house. I give half of the coins to my wife. I then sell one of my…
Computer powered by colony of blue-green algae has run for six months New Scientist Martian dust storms parch the planet by driving water into space Science Pierre Wunsch: Germs, war and central banks (PDF) Bank of International Settlements. Interesting on r*…
[If you see this note, it means the post is not yet complete because reasons. Please come back at 7:30 EST] Some of the close watchers of the Russia-Ukraine conflict have been talking up the prospects of peace talks. As we’ll…
ShareShare Article via FacebookShare Article via TwitterShare Article via LinkedInShare Article via Email Former Disney CEO Bob Iger will return to lead the company "effective immediately," replacing current CEO Bob Chapek, the company announced on Sunday. CNBC's 'Squawk Box' team reports.…
Lambert here: As the holiday season begins…. By Ania Jaroszewicz, Postdoctoral researcher Harvard University, George Loewenstein, Herbert A. Simon University Professor of Economics and Psychology Carnegie Mellon University, and Roland Benabou, Professor of Economics and Public Affairs Professor of Economics and…
Yves here. I hope readers will welcome Sal Bayat, who graciously has allowed us to publish his latest piece on the world according to crypto. He uses a recent extensive piece by former Goldman lawyer, now Bloomberg columnist Matt Levine as…
Yves here. John Helmer is continuing his series on the Russia’s campaign against Ukraine’s electrical grid. Note that in its last round of strikes, Russia started hitting gas distribution as well. Helmer provides intriguing detail in how Russia is identifying targets.…
With translations from foreign fiction and also differing publication dates in the UK, it is hard to classify some of these. But they are of recent vintage, I did read them in 2022, and I found them rewarding: Olga Tokarczuk, The…
I will be doing a Conversation with the author, not the actor: Thomas Holland FRSL (born 5 January 1968) is an English author who has published best-selling books on topics including classical and medieval history and the origins of Islam. He…
By Lambert Strether of Corrente Readers had many excellent comments and suggestions on this post’s companion piece of two weeks ago on election eve (“What ‘Our Democracy’ Should Look Like When Voting: A Simple Plan“). So I thought I’d revise the…