Finance
Remember the question a skeptical JohnH asked on 9/2/2022, about the Ukrainian offensive? Here’s the answer: Source: Militaryland, accessed 11/11/2022. From CNN: In a huge setback for the Kremlin, Russian troops withdrew from the Kherson region west of the Dnipro River, and images geolocated…
Yesterday’s explosive move higher was exactly the sort of thing traders should have been anticipating. As I wrote last month in Groping for a Bottom, it appeared the risks were highly one-sided: “The risk here feels asymmetric: The downside appears to…
ShareShare Article via FacebookShare Article via TwitterShare Article via LinkedInShare Article via Email On this Veterans Day, CNBC's Kristina Partsinevelos takes a look at the employment opportunities for former service members. 02:43 3 hours ago
Looks like the betting is on Democratic control. Source: PredictIt, accessed 11/11/2022, 9:18am ET.
by Calculated Risk on 11/11/2022 08:29:00 AM From CoStar: STR: Calendar Shift Causes Weekly US Hotel Occupancy To Fall As expected due to the Halloween calendar shift, U.S. hotel performance came in lower than the previous week and showed weakened comparisons…
by Calculated Risk on 11/11/2022 08:29:00 AM From CoStar: STR: Calendar Shift Causes Weekly US Hotel Occupancy To Fall As expected due to the Halloween calendar shift, U.S. hotel performance came in lower than the previous week and showed weakened comparisons…
When confronted with a puzzle, economists instintively look for an explanation based on the incentives of rational people acting within institutional constraints. The economic approach is humble–rather than assuming that something is wrong with other people, the economists begins to unravel…
‘Spectacular’ and bizarre ocean creatures (like stilt-walking fish) found living near deep-sea volcanoes LiveScience Thought To Be Extinct for 80 Years – Scientists Rediscover a Unique Insect SciTech Daily The Importance of Whiskers to an Animal Laughing Squid. Original paper from…
As Mexico’s GMO ban looms ever larger, the US National Corn Growers Association is calling for the The U.S. Trade Representative to intervene, “before it is too late”. Thanks to NAFTA and US agricultural subsidies, Mexico has become a major importer…
Yves here. Is G7 managing to undo what little progress it had made on key details of how the “fire, aim, ready” Russian oil price cap will work when it goes live on December 5? Get a load of this, from…
Yves here. While it’s good to see the US pursue and wind a case on illegal foreign product, far too often the US wimps out. For instance, more than a decade ago, China and Indonesia were subsidizing their coated paper industries,…
One of the best biographies of any economist, covers anything you might wish to know, and with conceptual understanding. This is a fantastic book and I am eagerly awaiting volume II. Mini-excerpt: Hayek [at LSE] never really liked Mannheim, whom he…
This paper studies the long-run effects of slavery and Jim Crow on Black Americans’ economic outcomes. We trace each Black family’s linked census and administrative records between 1850 and 2000 to measure how long they were enslaved and where they lived…
Read their letter here. Via Matt Y.
M/M headline vs. core vs. trimmed mean vs. median: Figure 1: Headline CPI inflation (blue), core CPI (tan), 16% trimmed mean CPI (green), median CPI (red), m/m annualized, %. NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: BLS, Cleveland Fed via…
by Calculated Risk on 11/10/2022 04:27:00 PM Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. Here is their weekly report released today from Chief Economist Danielle Hale: Weekly Housing Trends View — Data Week Ending Nov 5, 2022.…
by Calculated Risk on 11/10/2022 02:02:00 PM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Housing and InflationA brief excerpt: A few key points:• The Fed has been raising rates to slow inflation. Since housing is a key transmission mechanism for…
By Lambert Strether of Corrente Bird Song of the Day Laughing Dove, Amara, Ethiopia. “Song from a bird on the ground in a small tilled field surrounded by boulders and a small cliff, followed by wing noise at the end of…
That is the topic of my latest Bloomberg column. Here is the basic idea: Say the price of oil is $100 per barrel, and extraction costs Russia $50 per barrel. The profit on that oil is $50 per barrel. Now assume…
by Calculated Risk on 11/10/2022 11:33:00 AM From the MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies Decrease to New Survey Low in the Third Quarter of 2022 The delinquency rate for mortgage loans on one-to-four-unit residential properties decreased to a seasonally adjusted rate of 3.45…
by Calculated Risk on 11/10/2022 11:18:00 AM The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI this morning:According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, the median Consumer Price Index rose 0.5% in October. The 16% trimmed-mean Consumer Price…
This MoneyShow episode is now out from behind the paywall. Previously:Biggest Mistakes of UHNW Investors (October 25, 2021)
Yves here. This report on desperation among older people is both sad and infuriating. Anglo cultures promote nuclear families, which makes them a poor safety net. Neoliberalism has gutted social services, weakened community ties, increased housing costs, and shortened job tenures.…
M/M CPI inflation 0.4% vs. Bloomberg consensus 0.6%, while core was 0.3% vs. 0.5%. All measures (m/m, q/q, y/y, headline/core) below recent peaks. Figure 1: Headline CPI inflation, m/m (blue), q/q (red) and y/y (green), annualized, %. NBER defined peak-to-trough recession…
ShareShare Article via FacebookShare Article via TwitterShare Article via LinkedInShare Article via Email CNBC's Rick Santelli joins 'Squawk Box' to break down October's key inflation data, which showed that inflation increased less than expectated during the month. 02:10 9 minutes ago
by Calculated Risk on 11/10/2022 08:38:00 AM The DOL reported: In the week ending November 5, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 225,000, an increase of 7,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was…
by Calculated Risk on 11/10/2022 08:32:00 AM From the BLS: The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.4 percent in October on a seasonally adjusted basis, the same increase as in September, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics…
ShareShare Article via FacebookShare Article via TwitterShare Article via LinkedInShare Article via Email Nike co-founder Phil Knight joins CNBC's 'Squawk Box' to discuss why he donated millions to candidates running in Oregon's gubernatorial race and more. 05:01 39 minutes ago
ShareShare Article via FacebookShare Article via TwitterShare Article via LinkedInShare Article via Email Semafor’s Liz Hoffman joins CNBC's 'Squawk Box' to discuss Binance's decision to back out of its planned acquisition of FTX and breaks down what it means for the…
Hippo’s ‘snooze bubbles’ at Texas zoo captivate internet. ‘You’re adorable Timothy’ Fort Worth Star-Telegram Octopuses throw objects at one another, researchers observe Guardian After steep September slide, US imports stabilize in October Hellenic Shipping News Climate Grim outlook on global warming…
Yves here. Some recent paper attempt to show that those who don’t buy into the scientific consensus on many topics suffer from Dunning Kruger effect, as in overestimating their knowledge and yet having great certainty. But the conundrum is that many…
Russia-friendly commentators, apparently even more so the ones on Russian Telegram, were in an uproar after Minister of Defense Sergei Shoigu and theater commander Sergey Surovikin, said in a broadcast Wednesday evening that Russia would be withdrawing its forces from Kherson…
Yves here. Yes, it is terrible that the organizers of COP27 chose to hold it at a plush resort (denial of climate realities) and even more so when the official conference app allows the host government, Egypt, to snoop on users’…
I think I forgot to mention this when they won the Nobel Prize. In their model of bank runs, there are multiple equilibria and people can run on the bank simply if they expect other depositors will run on the bank…
Teenage mental health has been a source of growing concern over the past decade, with recent whistleblower testimony pointing to the mental health risks of spending time on social media platforms, especially for girls. This paper investigates the extent to which…
By Lambert Strether of Corrente Bird Song of the Day European Turtle-Dove, Kelling Heath, Norfolk, England, United Kingdom. * * * Politics “But what is government itself, but the greatest of all reflections on human nature?” –James Madison, Federalist 51 “Here’s…
by Calculated Risk on 11/09/2022 01:25:00 PM With the pandemic, there was a surge in 2nd home buying.I'm looking at data for some second home markets - and I'm tracking those markets to see if there is an impact from lending…
By simple addition of bets on 50 seats or less for Republicans — at 1030am Eastern Time, from PredictIt: Source: PedictIt, accessed 11/9/2022 at 10:30am Eastern. Note also the probability of Republican House, Democratic Senate is at 62%.
by Calculated Risk on 11/09/2022 10:29:00 AM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: New Home Cancellations increased Sharply in Q3A brief excerpt: First, a few quotes from some homebuilders:"During most of the year, demand for our homes was strong.…
Yves here. True to form, the US is willing to engage only in virtue signaling and marginal at best private sector enriching climate/energy schemes. We need war level mobilization and we need it yesterday. But the US does not do dirigisme,…
One of the best aspects of getting the midterm elections behind us is that we no longer have to hear an endless firehose of drivel coming out of television, radio, and print media. It’s not merely that the main pundit narratives…
I have no interest in discussing them, other than to note the median voter theorem is alive and well. But if your mood affiliation needs yet another outlet, the comments section is open.
ShareShare Article via FacebookShare Article via TwitterShare Article via LinkedInShare Article via Email Michelle Caruso-Cabrera, CNBC contributor, joins 'Squawk Box' to break down the results from the midterm elections. 03:53 Wed, Nov 9 20227:19 AM EST
