Podcast links: the coronavirus recession

Fridays are all about podcast links here at Abnormal Returns. You can check out last week’s links including a look at how to work in the age of social distancing. The biz Market history Finance Psychology Covid-19 Non-finance

Staying Unemployed: Why I’m Giving Up On Going Back To Work

At the beginning of 2020, I was excited to start applying for jobs after my six-month paternity leave was over in June. After eight years of unemployment, I had done everything I wanted to do. With now two kids, rising living expenses, and the possibility of a downturn, finding work would be the responsible thing […]

Knowing the difference between Risk and Deep Risk

Bill Bernstein is widely known among professional investors as one of the best writers and thinkers in the industry. Two of his books, Deep Risk and The Investor’s Manifesto, belong in any conversation about the most important investment books ever written. Bernstein doesn’t appear on TV nor does he do much public speaking. So this […]

ESG links: ratings scrutiny

We are now publishing ESG links on a monthly basis. However the coronavirus pandemic has taken the wind out of ESG coverage and commentary. We will continue to monitor the space. You can check out the previous set of links including a look at the relationship between ESG scores and the cost of capital. Chart […]

No, You Didn’t Just Lose Half Of Your Retirement Savings

So here we are just a month later,  in a full-blown economic panic, and at the start of the most sudden recession ever. The pandemic has spread much further and faster than most uninformed people (including me) would have ever guessed, and the whole world is on some form of lockdown. Nothing quite like this […]

A quick word about signing up for Liftoff

According to Matt, who runs our automated advisor product, Liftoff, March has been an extremely robust month for signups. Matt tells me that we had a more than 100% jump in new account signups in March versus February – this is fantastic news because it means people are understanding our message and investing during a […]

Thursday links: doing nothing

Did you know you can stay up-to-date with all of our posts via our daily e-mail newsletter? Sign up today! Quote of the Day “But when markets are roiling, don’t discount the value of doing nothing.” (Nir Kaissar) Chart of the Day You need a chart to get a handle on the surge in unemployment […]

Pragmatic Thinking On…COVID-19

Given the severity of recent events I want to start writing more broadly and providing more in-depth research pieces. I’ll be starting to publish long form letters on topics of interest. The series will be called “Pragmatic Thinking On…” This will hopefully provide more detail than the blog posts and provide readers with more in-depth […]

How The CARES Act Paycheck Protection Program Impacts Financial Advisory Firms

Executive Summary Last week, Congress passed the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act, a $2 trillion emergency fiscal stimulus package with the aim of mitigating the economic damage created by the Coronavirus pandemic by introducing a wide range of provisions for individuals, businesses, healthcare entities, and state and local governments to meet short-term […]

Quickly Maximizing Paycheck Protection Program’s (PPP) Forgiveable Loan Opportunity For Financial Advisors

Executive Summary Last week, Congress passed the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act, a $2 trillion emergency fiscal stimulus package with the aim of mitigating the economic damage created by the Coronavirus pandemic by introducing a wide range of provisions for individuals, businesses, healthcare entities, and state and local governments to meet short-term […]

Startup links: picking up the pieces

Thursdays at Abnormal Returns are all about startup and venture capital links. You can check out last week’s links including a look at how coronavirus is affecting startup valuations. Quote of the Day “Remember that there will be a tomorrow. The world may be different, your company may be different, you may be forced to […]

Staggering

We now have data for last week’s initial jobless claims. The number is staggering. 6.6 million filed for unemployment insurance for the first time last week. During the prior week it was 3.28 million. These numbers take your breath away. Chart via WSJ Here’s the even worse news – this only records the people who […]

Wednesday links: a missed opportunity

Did you know you can stay up-to-date with all of our posts via our daily e-mail newsletter? Sign up today! Quote of the Day “There’s no question the United States missed the opportunity to get ahead of the novel coronavirus. But the window for making important decisions hasn’t closed.” (Bill Gates) Chart of the Day […]

Personal finance links: effective interventions

Wednesdays are all about personal finance here at Abnormal Returns. You can check out last week’s links including a look at how to handle the mortgage refinancing crush at the moment. Quote of the Day “The most effective interventions focused on the selfish, salient, and simple. Tell a man how to fish and he’ll forget. […]

Will the economy go back to “normal”

I think some things will go back to normal faster than others. I don’t think that’s a very profound statement. Backyard barbecues are going to be more popular than attending a concert at the Meadowlands or Madison Square Garden. Obviously. Many meetings that used to take place in person will now move over to Zoom, […]

Real Estate Outperformance Examples During A Coronavirus Pandemic

In a previous post, I estimated how real estate performs at various levels of a stock market decline. In my opinion, the sweet spot for real estate outperformance is somewhere between a 15% – 25% stock market decline. During such a level of decline, mortgage rates tend to fall as investors buy Treasury bonds. As […]

Inherent Uncertainty

My darling bride and I are walking for an hour a day during Lent. As it turns out, that commitment became much easier to uphold than I had expected. On one of those recent walks, we happened by a local house of worship, the site of the Poway synagogue shooting almost a year ago, about […]

What Do Market Recoveries Look Like?

Since 1871, market downturns have recovered as follows: 33 percent of market downturns recover within a month; 50 percent of market downturns recover within two months; 80 percent of market downturns recover within one year; and 95 percent of the time those big “once or twice in a lifetime drops” return to even in three […]

Punched in the Face

When I was a ninth-grader, my high school showed Alfred Hitchcock’s classic horror film, Psycho, in the school auditorium on a snowy Friday night. I desperately wanted to be and look cool, but when Martin Balsam’s Detective Arbogast climbed the stairs in the old house behind Bates Motel to meet Mother, I dove under my seat […]

Wash Your Hands

No instruction has been more consistent throughout the coronavirus crisis than the insistence that we wash our hands. Pretty much all the time. A lot more thoroughly and for a lot longer than we’re used to. The reminders are insistent, too, and sometimes annoying. [embedded content] But they are important. Therefore, it is appropriate that we […]

Tuesday links: easing volatility

Did you know you can stay up-to-date with all of our posts via our daily e-mail newsletter? Sign up today! Quote of the Day “I say this with some hesitation, but it looks as if the period of extreme volatility has passed.” (Eddy Elfenbein) Chart of the Day TSA measured ‘traveler throughput’ is down some […]

Research links: probabilistic mechanisms

Tuesdays are all about academic (and practitioner) literature at Abnormal Returns. You can check out last week’s links including a look at why there is no ‘natural level’ for interest rates. Quote of the Day “Markets are probabilistic mechanisms, collectively allocating capital with imperfect information about an inherently unknowable future.” (Barry Ritholtz) Pandemics Bear markets […]

Mr. Morgan

The Federal Reserve had a precursor before it became the lender of last resort. It wasn’t an institution or a government department. It was a single, solitary man named J. Pierpont Morgan. Mr. Morgan, he was called in the newspapers, and you didn’t need to go any further – everyone knew to whom you were […]

#FASuccess Ep 170: Eschewing The Industry’s ‘Growth Imperative’ And Crafting Your Advisory Business With Intention Instead, with Patrick Tucker

Executive Summary Welcome back to the 170th episode of Financial Advisor Success Podcast! My guest on today’s podcast is Patrick Tucker. Patrick is the founder of True Measure Wealth Management, an independent RIA based in Omaha, Nebraska, that oversees nearly $150 million of assets under management for 89 client families. What’s unique about Patrick, though, is […]