A Bitcoin (BTC) on-chain indicator, which tracks the amount of coin supply held by long-term holders (LTHs) in losses, is signaling that a market bottom could be close.
Eerily accurate Bitcoin bottom pundit
As of Sept. 22, approximately 30% of Bitcoin’s LTHs were facing losses due to BTC’s decline from $69,000 in November 2021 to around $19,000 now. That is about 3%–5% below the level that previously coincided with Bitcoin’s market bottoms.
For instance, in March 2020, Bitcoin price declined below $4,000 amid the COVID-19-led market crash, which happened when the amount of BTC supply held by LTH in loss climbed toward 35%, as shown below.
Bitcoin long-term holder supply in losses. Source: Glassnode
Similarly, Bitcoin’s December 2018 bottom of around $3,200 concurred alongside the LTH loss metric rising above 32%. In both cases, BTC/USD followed up by entering a long bullish cycle.
Hence, the number of LTHs in loss during a typical bear market tends