By Nicholas Colas of DataTrek Research
The last 3 times the Federal Reserve got a new Chair, we knew as early as October 9th (Yellen) or as late as November 2nd (Powell). We are, in other words, right in the middle of
We continue to stare in admittedly morbid fascination at the PredictIt odds for the next Federal Reserve Chair. That is the small-money wagering website we use as a proxy for the probabilities of important events where there is no capital markets equivalent. Two points on the latest data:
First: current Chair Powell is still the favorite, at 76 percent odds. Governor Brainard is a distant second at 18 percent. Former Fed Vice Chair Ferguson and current regional president Bostic have the same 6 percent odds of getting the nod. No one else shows odds of +5 percent.
Second: as the PredictIt probabilities chart below shows, Powell’s renomination odds have been all over