October Inflation Recap

With PCE inflation figures in, we have the key price indices for October.  Core PCE inflation was at market expectations (Bloomberg). Nowcasts for November inflation is down markedly.

Figure 1: Month-on-month annualized CPI inflation (blue), PCE price inflation (red). Light squares are Cleveland Fed nowcasts as of 11/24. Source: BLS, BEA via FRED, Cleveland Fed, and NBER.

Core inflation looks like it will be down as well.

Figure 2: Month-on-month annualized Core CPI inflation (blue), Core PCE price inflation (red). Light squares are Cleveland Fed nowcasts as of 11/24. Source: BLS, BEA via FRED, Cleveland Fed, and NBER.

Note these are month-on-month inflation rates; year-on-year rates will continue to rise through November’s numbers even if these nowcasts prove correct.

Keep reading this article on Econbrowser Blog - James Hamilton & Menzie Chinn.

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