Retail Sales Preview: A Drop To End The Year, And It's All Downhill From Here

Now that even Blackrock is echoing our warning that central banks – powerless to fight supply-driven inflation – could hike right into a recession and beyond, the next question is what is the best leading or coincident indicator showing the state of the US economy. A good place to start is spending of the US consumer, responsible for 70% of US GDP, and a good indicator of that is retail sales, the same retail sales that have been running some 22% above trend from pre-covid levels even as payrolls remain dismally lower.

Conveniently we get the next retail sales report tomorrow morning, where consensus expects to see sequential growth if modestly slowing, with the December print up just 0.1% down from a 0.3% increase in the previous month , and a 0.3% increase in core retail

Keep reading this article on Zero Hedge - Blog.

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