With the release of industrial production (1.1% m/m vs. 0.5% Bloomberg consensus; mfg 0.8% vs. 0.4% consensus), we have the April reading for another key indicator followed by the NBER BCDC.
Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment (dark blue), industrial production (red), personal income excluding transfers in Ch.2012$ (green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2012$ (black), consumption in Ch.2012$ (light blue), and monthly GDP in Ch.2012$ (pink), all log normalized to 2020M02=0. NBER defined recession dates, peak-to-trough, shaded gray. Source: BLS, Federal Reserve, BEA, via FRED, IHS Markit (nee Macroeconomic Advisers) (5/2/2022 release), NBER, and author’s calculations.
We also had retail and food service sales figures for April released today (0.9% m/m at consensus). Retail and food service sales are not core series followed by the NBER BCDC (at least in previous years), but they can — and are — used to inform views about consumption. I use the relationship in