It’s a given that no one knows what the future holds.

But that does not mean we merely shrug our shoulders and stumble blindly into whatever comes next. We can consider the probabilities, map out higher and lower possible outcomes, and wargame various scenarios. We can go beyond the present circumstances by considering the recent history that led us here.

Let’s consider two possibilities: One where many things go right, and another one where most do not (purposefully avoiding impossible extremes). Our expectations are that reality ends up somewhere in between the two extremes. That’s the higher probability but any point along the spectrum between the extremes is a viable potential outcome.

There are endless challenges facing America and the world, but let’s consider the 5 biggest ones: Inflation, War, Recession, Covid, and Market Volatility. There are dozens more, any one of which – Monkeypox! – could spiral into

Keep reading this article on Barry Ritholtz - The Big Picture.

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