I cannot recall a parallel era to this in terms of economic cross-currents. There are credible arguments on a lot of key data: Inflation, retail sales, NFP, JOLTs, and NILF. It’s almost as if you are not confused about the economy, then you probably are not paying attention.
I wanted to briefly highlight a fascinating chart courtesy of Invictus that I suspect might explain some of the underlying confusion and challenge in understanding the current state of the economy.
The chart above shows both Goods (blue line) and Services (red line) relative to total personal consumption expenditures. Its priced in billions and shows the past 10 years (Jan 2012=100). If you want to play with the chart yourself, just click the image above and have at it.
Think about this even in light of the inventory shortfall of single-family homes, and the difficulty in finding new cars (or getting