Estimating through end-May, count regression (negative binomial, maximum likelihood):

casualtiest = –1.72 – 0.72 bant + 1.21 trumpt – 0.14 bident +0.00001popt

Adj-R2 = 0.022, SER = 32.6, NOBS = 389. Bold denotes significance at 10% msl, standard errors corrected for overdispersion (GLM option in EViews).

For number of mass shooting events, count regression (Poisson):

eventst = –5.27 – 0.55 bant + 0.55 trumpt + 0.014 bident +0.00001popt

Adj-R2 = 0.100, SER = 0.565, NOBS = 389. Bold denotes significance at 10% msl, standard errors corrected for overdispersion (GLM option in EViews).

Population for April, May extrapolated using previous year’s worth of population data (in log first differences).

Keep reading this article on Econbrowser Blog - James Hamilton & Menzie Chinn.

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