unadjusted for composition:
Figure 1: Average hourly earnings in leisure and hospitality services (blue, left log scale), and in total private nonfarm payroll (brown, right scale), in 2020$. May observation uses CPI nowcast of 6/5 via Cleveland Fed. NBER defined peak to trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: BLS, Cleveland Fed, NBER, and author’s calculations.