unadjusted for composition:

Figure 1: Average hourly earnings in leisure and hospitality services (blue, left log scale), and in total private nonfarm payroll (brown, right scale), in 2020$. May observation uses CPI nowcast of 6/5 via Cleveland Fed. NBER defined peak to trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: BLS, Cleveland Fed, NBER, and author’s calculations.

Keep reading this article on Econbrowser Blog - James Hamilton & Menzie Chinn.

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