Results from the survey (taken June 6-8), re: GDP, prices, recession:

Figure 1: GDP (bold black), potential GDP (gray), CBO projection published May (blue), Survey of Professional Forecasters published May (red), WSJ survey of economists (April), IGM-FT survey of Macroeconomists June survey (sky blue), all in billions Ch.2012$ SAAR, all on log scale. NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: BEA (2nd release), CBO (May 2022), SPF (May 2022), IGM-FT survey (June 2022), NBER, and author’s calculations.

Note that, unlike previous episodes, the IGM-FT median survey and the SPF survey differ noticeably in terms of the levels of GDP. The WSJ mean and IGM-FT median don’t differ much (for end-2022), but that hides the fact that the IGM-FT forecast incorporates the Q1 negative growth which was not known as of the WSJ April survey. Hence, in this sense the IGM-FT median forecast represents a considerably more optimistic outlook

Keep reading this article on Econbrowser Blog - James Hamilton & Menzie Chinn.

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