When People Who Don’t Understand Basic Time Series Analysis Try to Talk Time Series Analysis

From 2019, pay special attention to CoRev’s statistical analysis (at the end):

Reader JBH writes:

“Employment has done marvelously well under this president.”

I laughed and laughed and laughed when I read this. Why? Take a look:

Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment (dark blue), and stochastic trend (red). Stochastic trend estimated using 2010-2016 data, and regression of first log difference on a constant. Source: BLS March 2019 employment situation release, and author’s calculations.

We are doing as well as we were from 2010-2016, even after massive tax cuts and the end of spending restraints amounting in the trillions.

But kudos to JBH for livin’ in a fantasy world … it for sure is more pleasant than my world. Thanks, Drumpf!

Update, 4/12/2019, 4:15PM Pacific: Reader CoRev requests:

Can you provide the raw data used?

Here is the dataset used, directly downloaded from FRED.

Update, 4/16/2019, 9AM Pacific: Reader CoRev

Keep reading this article on Econbrowser Blog - James Hamilton & Menzie Chinn.

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