Estimating the Short-Term Impact of War on Economic Activity in Ukraine

Yves here. I am sure readers will have fun taking apart this post. On its face, the finding that GDP in Ukraine in April was only 15% below pre-war levels seems absurd. The country has 13 million refugees out of a population of about 41 million, with the breakdown according to the UN of 5 million fleeing abroad, the rest displaced internally. Rumor has it that a fair number of those who left Ukraine are conscription (meaning also working) age men seeking to avoid becoming cannon fodder.

Of course, Ukraine GDP is being pumped up by the US paying directly for Ukraine government operations, as well as the revenues from selling all those weapons sent to Ukraine on the black market.

Being a bit more serious, I can’t see how using Twitter activity or Google searches are a proxy for economic activity, particularly since Russia (so far) has courteously left

Keep reading this article on Naked Capitalism (Yves Smith) - Blog.

Leave a Reply