Reader Steven Kopits writes:

I think 2011 has a decent call on being a recession. It’s the only time in US history when oil consumption fell — and fell substantially — without a called recession, and the next three years were not very good, hence, Summers Nov. 2013 secular stagnation speech. And of course Europe went down like a ton of bricks. They will this time, too.

Here’s US petroleum use (US production plus imports minus exports):

Figure 1: US total petroleum use (blue), and seasonally adjusted (red), in 000’s of barrels. Dashed line at 2011M02. Seasonal adjustment using Census X-13. Source: EIA, and author’s calculations.

What do some of the key indicators follow by the NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee follow look like?

Figure 2: Nonfarm payroll employment (dark blue), industrial production (red), personal income excluding transfers in Ch.2012$ (green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2012$ (black), consumption

Keep reading this article on Econbrowser Blog - James Hamilton & Menzie Chinn.

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