Look around at enough indicators (say vehicle miles traveled) and you might think so.  A follow up to this post. Let’s look at what conventional and high frequency indicators say.

Here are key indicators tracked by the NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee look like:

Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment (dark blue), Bloomberg consensus for NFP as of 6/25 (ble +), industrial production (red), personal income excluding transfers in Ch.2012$ (green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2012$ (black), consumption in Ch.2012$ (light blue), and monthly GDP in Ch.2012$ (pink), all log normalized to 2020M02=0. NBER defined recession dates, peak-to-trough, shaded gray. Source: BLS, Federal Reserve, BEA, via FRED, IHS Markit (nee Macroeconomic Advisers) (6/1/2022 release), NBER, and author’s calculations.

The Chicago Fed’s National Activity Index (CFNAI) is another indicator. Here’s the CFNAI-3MA (3 month moving average):

From the Chicago Fed website describing the index:

The CFNAI is a

Keep reading this article on Econbrowser Blog - James Hamilton & Menzie Chinn.

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