by Calculated Risk on 7/07/2022 12:18:00 PM
On Friday at 8:30 AM ET, the BLS will release the employment report for June. The consensus is for 270,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 3.6%.
• First, currently there are still about 800 thousand fewer jobs than in February 2020 (the month before the pandemic).
This graph shows the job losses from the start of the employment recession, in percentage terms.
The current employment recession was by far the worst recession since WWII in percentage terms. However, the current employment recession, 27 months after the onset, has recovered quicker than the previous two recessions.
• ADP Report: The ADP employment report has been “paused” and is being retooled.
• ISM Surveys: Note that the ISM services are diffusion indexes based on the