by Calculated Risk on 8/09/2022 03:14:00 PM

Back in early 2009, I wrote a couple of posts arguing there would be an increase in auto sales – Vehicle Sales (Jan 2009) and Looking for the Sun (Feb 2009).   This was an out-of-the-consensus call and helped me call the bottom for the US economy in mid-2009.

I wrote an update in 2014, and argued vehicle sales would “mostly move sideways” for the next few years.

Here is another update to the U.S. fleet turnover graph.

This graph shows the total number of registered vehicles in the U.S. divided by the sales rate through July 2022 – and gives a turnover ratio for the U.S. fleet (this doesn’t tell you the age or the composition of the fleet).  Note: the number of registered vehicles is estimated for 2021 and 2022.

The wild swings in 2009 were due to the “cash for clunkers” program. 


Keep reading this article on Bill McBride - Calculedriskblog.

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