My colleague Kenneth West did a long interview on inflation, interest rates, and recession, on Wisconsin Public Radio’s Central Time on Monday [audio]

To paraphrase, for the outlook,  pay attention to employment, unemployment, and job openings… and for inflation, look at core inflation rates.

Figure 1: Unemployment rate, % (blue, left scale), quarter-on-quarter annualized core CPI inflation (black, right scale), PPI finished goods less food and energy (green, right scale), core PCE deflator (red, right scale), all in %. Source: BLS via FRED, BEA via FRED, and author’s calculations.

For the entire interview (about 20 min), go here.

Keep reading this article on Econbrowser Blog - James Hamilton & Menzie Chinn.

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