From the CPI release today.

Figure 1: Year-on-Year core CPI inflation (bold black), instantaneous core CPI inflation (T=12,a=4) (tan), instantaneous core chained CPI inflation (green), m/m supercore (sky blue), instanteous core PCE deflator (red), all at annual rates. Instantaneous inflation per Eeckhout (2023). Chained CPI seasonally adjusted by author using X-13/log transform on levels. Source: BLS, BEA via FRED, BLS, and author’s calculations.

Instantaneous supercore inflation is essentially flat. See Paweł Skrzypczyński for more on services core ex shelter.

Instantaneous headline CPI inflation drops (as did y/y).

Figure 2: Year-on-Year headline CPI inflation (bold black), instantaneous headline CPI inflation (T=12,a=4) (tan), instantaneous headline chained CPI inflation (green), instantaneous PCE deflator inflation (red), all at annual rates. Instantaneous inflation per Eeckhout (2023). Chained CPI seasonally adjusted by author using X-13/log transform on levels. Source: BLS, BEA via FRED, and author’s calculations.

More from the CEA today.

More on grocery prices

Keep reading this article on Econbrowser Blog - James Hamilton & Menzie Chinn.

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