The index came in at +0.9% vs. +0.2% m/m.

I’ve inverted the dollar index so that the exchange rate and import price should comove if there is exchange rate pass through.

Figure 1: Nominal dollar value inverted (blue, left scale), and price of all imported commodities excluding petroleum, n.s.a. (tan, right scale). NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: Federal Reserve, BLS via FRED, NBER.

Note the uptick in import prices ex-petroleum (which shows up in commodity import prices as well). GS put up their estimate of the PCE deflator inflation by 1 bp (m/m) as a consequence.

Interestingly, import prices from China have tracked the dollar/yuan.

Figure 2: Nominal CNY/USD inverted (blue, left scale), and price of all imported commodities from China, n.s.a. (tan, right scale). NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: Federal Reserve, BLS via FRED, NBER.

Note that the import prices from

Keep reading this article on Econbrowser Blog - James Hamilton & Menzie Chinn.

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