Nothing truly occurs in a vacuum.

All events have preceding factors, with many prior elements bubbling below the surface, most of which you didn’t even know existed. Unintended consequences of this action here will result in over there. If the flapping of a Butterfly’s wings can be felt halfway around the world, imagine the impact of the largest central bank intervention and emergency government fiscal program in the modern era.

People prefer definitive, clear answers about big issues, but the economy and markets are and will always be much more complex than that. We may prefer simple yes or no, black-and-white, binary analyses, but all that oversimplification does is confirm your priors. To get a deeper understanding of what is happening at any moment calls for nuance, allows for multiple causation of events, and accepts just how much uncertainty there is over what the future may bring.

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Keep reading this article on Barry Ritholtz - The Big Picture.

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