The DWD released the May preliminary employment numbers on Thursday (h/t James):

Figure 1: Wisconsin nonfarm payroll employment (black), Philadelphia Fed early benchmark series (teal), Wisconsin May Economic Outlook forecast (red), all in 000’s, s.a. Source: DWD, Philadelphia Fed, WI DoR.

We are on target for nonfarm payroll employment vis a vis the May ’24 forecast, according to the DWD/BLS. The Philadelphia Fed early benchmark is slightly below the official (0.4%, 11,500) for April, keeping in mind the actual benchmark (as opposed to extended forecast)  runs through December (0.3%, 7900).

On private nonfarm payroll employment, there’s no early benchmark check. However, I can use the (seasonally adjusted) changes in net job gains from the Business Employment Dynamics to compare against quarterly private NFP.

Figure 2: Wisconsin private nonfarm payroll employment (black), cumulative Business Employment Dynamics net job gains iterated on 2022Q3 (blue), Wisconsin May Economic Outlook forecast (red),

Keep reading this article on Econbrowser Blog - James Hamilton & Menzie Chinn.

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