With Q1 3rd release, along with GDP+, we have the following picture (in levels):

FIgure 1: GDP reported (bold black), GDO (blue), GDP+ (tan), final sales (light blue), CBO June projection (red), and GDPNow (27 June), all in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR. GDP+ level iterated on 2019Q4 reported level of GDP. Source: BEA 2024Q1 3rd release via FRED, Philadelphia Fed, Atlanta Fed, CBO (June), and author’s calculations.

Reported GDP is substantially above GDO or GDP+ (1.1% and 0.9% respectively), but the growth rates are not too dissimilar. GDPNow is tracking the June CBO projection (based on early May data).

Final sales is a measure of aggregate demand; this measure is maintaining pace.

It’s easier to see some of these trends in growth rates.

FIgure 2: Quarter-on-Quarter annualized growth rate of GDP reported (bold black), of GDO (blue), of GDP+ (tan), of final sales (light blue), of CBO June GDP projection

Keep reading this article on Econbrowser Blog - James Hamilton & Menzie Chinn.

Leave a Reply