Bloomberg consensus is 4%. This implies near trigger for the Sahm Rule (in real time):

Figure 1: Real time Sahm Rule (blue), and consensus based on Bloomberg as of 7/4/2024 (tan square). Source: FRED, Bloomberg, and author’s calculations.

If the unemployment rate instead hits 4.1%, then the Sahm rule would indicate a recession. If the consensus is hit in June, and the unemployment rate stays constant through July then we’ll be at the threshold.

Keep reading this article on Econbrowser Blog - James Hamilton & Menzie Chinn.

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