CPI m/m (headline, core) below consensus (-0.1% vs +0.1%, +0.1 vs +0.2, respectively).

Figure 1: Instantaneous inflation per Eeckhout (2023) T=12, a=4, for CPI (blue), for chained CPI (tan), for PCE deflator (green).  Chained CPI adjusted by author using X-13. Source: BLS, BEA, and author’s calculations.

On the same vertical axis, here’s core measures.

Figure 2: Instantaneous inflation per Eeckhout (2023) T=12, a=4, for core CPI (blue), for chained core CPI (tan), for core PCE deflator (green).  Chained CPI adjusted by author using X-13. Source: BLS, BEA, and author’s calculations.

Market reaction:

Source: TradingEconomics, accessed 7/11/2024. Time is Central.

Keep reading this article on Econbrowser Blog - James Hamilton & Menzie Chinn.

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