I have been a consistent critic of survey “data” and polling, along with traditional measures of sentiment.

There are many reasons for this: Half of Americans do not vote, so when they respond to polls they are mucking things up. Even if they say they are going to vote, there is little reason to believe them. I don’t know who still has a landline, or who answers an unknown phone call on their cell phones, but I question if these folk represent broader America.

In the car om the way up to Grand Lake Stream and Camp Kotok, another interesting question came up on the polling/survey question:

“What do people actually know relative to what they believe they know?“

Tom Morgan of The Leading Edge raised this issue in response to a discussion of how under-utilized the phrase “I don’t know” is — especially but not exclusively in finance.

Tom

Keep reading this article on Barry Ritholtz - The Big Picture.