CFNAI and state-level coincident indices suggest softening in activity.

Figure 1: CFNAI diffusion index (blue, left scale), and coincident index diffusion index for 3 month changes (tan, right scale). NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: Chicago Fed via FRED, and Philadelphia Fed, NBER.

Note that CFNAI diffusion index reading of -0.17 is above the -0.35 threshold for recession.

Keep reading this article on Econbrowser Blog - James Hamilton & Menzie Chinn.

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