Part 1,434,237. (Previously [1] [2] [3][4][5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] ) Remember EJ Antoni, declaring a recession occurring in  2022H1?

In terms of how we define it or what marks a recession, the basic understanding is that when the economy shrinks for two consecutive quarters, so three months, and then another three months, that’s a recession. The reason that the White House has been making a lot of hay of, oh, that’s not official definition, blah, blah, blah. Okay. I suppose there is no technical official definition, but I’ve taught plenty of economics courses. That was what we used in every single class. That’s what you’ll see in most, if not all economics textbooks. That’s been the understanding for the last 100 years. So the idea that this is somehow new or not true, I dismiss that out of hand.

Well, what was two consecutive quarters of

Keep reading this article on Econbrowser Blog - James Hamilton & Menzie Chinn.