Back on August 30, I wrote:

EJ Antoni (Heritage) is dubious about GDPNow’s (and other nowcasts) regarding Q3 growth. From X aka Twitter today:

“Latest Q3 Nowcasts: ATL 2.5% (2.0% prev) NY 2.49% (1.94 prev) STL 2.05% (1.65 prev) It’s going to take stellar consumer spending numbers for Aug and Sep to make this a reality:”

Well, here’s a picture of nowcasts as of today. GDPNow is 3.4% q/q AR for Q3, up from 3.2% on 10/9.

The nowcast for consumption was 3.8% q/q AR. I noted that this was plausible. What does today’s nowcast indicate? 3.6%.

Keep reading this article on Econbrowser Blog - James Hamilton & Menzie Chinn.

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