Heritage Foundation EJ Antoni channels ShadowStats:

“Government economic figures hide the truth about the economy…” Thang [sic] you,
@mises , for highlighting a recent paper @profstonge and I wrote that explains how inflation has been greatly underestimated – read the article by @RonPaul here:
https://t.co/cVroe5QwCT

I have written a paper on the Antoni-St. Onge thesis that using the “right” deflators means GDP in 2024Q2 is below 2019Q2 levels, but here I want to highlight one fact – what their alternative GDP deflator entails.

Source: Antoni and St. Onge (2024).

Notice the big orange area in the above graph, which Antoni and St. Onge attribute to their improved treatment of housing costs. I try to follow their argument, using the product of house prices (Case Shiller national house price index) and 30 year mortgage rates in place of the BEA’s component. I adjust real consumption accordingly (the authors do not mention adjustment to

Keep reading this article on Econbrowser Blog - James Hamilton & Menzie Chinn.

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