I’ve already covered much of this in my podcast with Dwarkesh, but I thought it would be useful to write it all out in one place.  I’ll assume you already know the current state of the debate.  Here goes:

1. Due to the Baumol-Bowen cost disease, less productive sectors tend to become a larger share of the economy over time.  This already has been happening since the American economy originated.  A big chunk of current gdp already is slow to respond, highly inefficient, governmental or government-subsidized sectors.  They just won’t adopt AI, or use it effectively, all that quickly.  As I said to an AI guy a few days ago “The way I can convince you is to have you sit in on a Faculty Senate meeting.”  And the more effiicient AI becomes, the more this trend is likely to continue, which slows the prospective measured growth gains from AI.

Keep reading this article on Marginal Revolution.