by Calculated Risk on 3/11/2025 02:51:00 PM

The Consumer Price Index for February is scheduled to be released tomorrow. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in CPI, and a 0.3% increase in core CPI.  The consensus is for CPI to be up 2.9% year-over-year (YoY), and core CPI to be up 3.2% YoY.

From Goldman Sachs economists:

We forecast a 0.29% increase in the core CPI in February (vs. 0.3% consensus). Our forecast reflects an increase in used (+0.6%) and new car prices (+0.3%) and another large increase in car insurance (+1.0%), as well as a boost from seasonal distortions to communications (+0.3%) and airfares (+2.5%). We expect the shelter components to moderate slightly (OER +0.29%, rent +0.27%) and lodging to reverse some of last month’s jump (-0.5%).

Our forecast would lower year-over-year core CPI inflation to 3.21%. We forecast that headline CPI rose 0.27% in February, reflecting higher

Keep reading this article on Bill McBride - Calculedriskblog.

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