That’s the title of an August 21,2024 article by Heritage Foundation’s EJ Antoni in the Boston Herald. Here’s an update of my August 28 post:

Antoni wrote on 8/21:

“…an increasing number of indicators say the recession has arrived in the broader economy.”

Here are key indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, as of last relevant release (for those available as of 8/28, see my original post).

 Figure 1: Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) employment from CES (bold blue), NFP implied preliminary benchmark revision (blue), civilian employment as officially reported (orange), industrial production (red), personal income excluding current transfers in Ch.2017$ (bold green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2017$ (black), consumption in Ch.2017$ (light blue), and monthly GDP in Ch.2017$ (pink), GDP (blue bars), all log normalized to 2021M11=0. Source: BLS via FRED, Federal Reserve, BEA 2024Q4 advance release, S&P Global Market Insights (nee Macroeconomic Advisers, IHS

Keep reading this article on Econbrowser Blog - James Hamilton & Menzie Chinn.

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