The current reading of 50.8 is below the 73.4 average reading over NBER peak-to-trough recessions dates (1990M01-2025M03):

Figure 1: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (blue, left scale), and Conference Board Consumer Confidence (tan, right scale). NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: U.Michigan, Conference Board, NBER.

The same is not true for the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence measure, at least for March at 92.9 (recession average is 75).

Another way of tackling the question is to use a probit regression to see if contemporaneous values of the Michigan Confidence index predicts (not forecasts) recession.

I estimate over 1990-2025M03 a probit regression of a recession dummy on U.Michigan Sentiment, assuming no recession has occurred through March 2025.

The estimated recession probabilities are shown in blue in Figure 2 below.

Figure 2: Estimated recession probability from probit regression on Michigan Sentiment (blue), and on Michigan Sentiment, News Sentiment,

Keep reading this article on Econbrowser Blog - James Hamilton & Menzie Chinn.