I discussed much of this in my Q2 2025 RWM client quarterly call on April 5. I am sharing this now because so many questions have poured in.

Best Worst Cases

Last Monday, I discussed the consequences of chaos. While the purposes of the new tariff policy were not well explained – some of the goals were muddled and unclear – it seems a large part of the problem was the roll-out. It was ham-fisted, opaque, and amateurish. That amplified the initial market reaction, with a lot of volatility and a significant drawdown.

Consider how the Federal Reserve preps markets in advance for any significant change in policy: They warn that a change is coming several meetings in advance; we see shifts in the dot plot; there are discussions about their favored metrics (PCE vs CPI?). Numerous Fed Presidents fan out to speak in formal, academic environments where they

Keep reading this article on Barry Ritholtz - The Big Picture.