The GDP outlook is down markedly. I was insufficiently pessimistic (relative to WSJ survey respondents) regarding the GDP outlook.

Figure 1: GDP (bold black), WSJ January survey mean (blue), WSJ April survey mean (tan), GDPNow of 4/9 (sky blue square), Chinn forecast for FT-Booth March survey (red square), all in billions Ch.2017$ SAAR. Source: BEA 2024Q4 3rd release, WSJ surveys.

There is a wide range of outcomes predicted for Q3 and Q4, in terms of output levels. While the mean trajectory is positive, the trimmed 20% band  includes two quarters of negative growth (Carlton Strong/JP Morgan).

Figure 2: GDP (bold black), WSJ January survey mean (blue), WSJ April survey mean (tan), 20% trimmed high (Sean Snaith/U.Central Florida), low (Carlton Strong/JP Morgan) (gray lines), GDPNow of 4/9 (sky blue square), Chinn forecast for FT-Booth March survey (red square), all in billions Ch.2017$ SAAR. Source: BEA 2024Q4 3rd release, WSJ

Keep reading this article on Econbrowser Blog - James Hamilton & Menzie Chinn.

Leave a Reply