Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter vesion, was published by Project Syndicate.

Everyone wants to know if a recession is imminent.  But the most popular recession indicators are not necessarily the best places to look for the answer.

The recession question is front and center in the US now because of concerns over actions by the Trump Administration.
Six factors currently might trigger a downturn:

the trade war, crash in the US stock market, chaotic cuts in USG spending, a US fiscal crisis arising from government shutdown, debt limit stand-off, or credit downgrading, the blocking of net immigration, and increased uncertainty and risk (driven especially by the erratic rollout of US tariff policy), as reflected in sharp increases in the VIX and  bond premia.

Keep reading this article on Econbrowser Blog - James Hamilton & Menzie Chinn.