Torsten Slok’s VTRR (Voluntary Trade Reset Recession):

Source: Slok/Apollo.

Torsten appends a 90% probability to recession. This is a conditional forecast (the tariffs stay in place). When the store shelves are empty, that’s when the collapse begins in this scenario.

Betting markets place 49% on 2025H1 for a recession start, a bit earlier than Slok’s guess.

I thought it would be useful to show the range of survey responses on the question of GDP growth, and how they match with two forecasts, and several nowcasts.

Figure 1: GDP (bold black), GDPNow adjusted for gold imports, 4/24 (light blue square), GS, 4/24 (red triangle)), Wells Fargo, 4/25 (pink +), NY Fed, 4/25 (purple square), St. Louis Fed, 4/25 (red circle), IMF April WEO forecast (inverted blue triangle), Dynan/PIIE forecast of April 15th (teal), WSJ April survey mean (tan line), 20% trimmed low/high (gray lines), all in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR.

Keep reading this article on Econbrowser Blog - James Hamilton & Menzie Chinn.